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GOP IS KILLING IT IN EARLY VOTING. MEANING?

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So what does early voting data mean in this cycle? As I asked earlier, is this a sign of something? Or has early voting just become more widely available and convenient? 

 

If the latter, one would assume the absolute numbers would go up proportionately, no? For the absolute numbers to go up, and for the GOP to move from behind to be leading Dems, it seems something may be up. 

 

The tweet at bottom, about Connecticut, is amazing. 

 

Republicans are still killing it in the early voting ...

 

Keep in mind, the GOP usually does better in most of these states on Election Day than Democrats:

 

Via Democratic political data firm Target Smart:

Arizona  R +14 R +160,000 ( R+3 improvement from Oct 22 )

Florida   R +4   R +132,000  ( D+2 from Oct 22 )

Georgia R +7  R +80,000 ( D+2 from Oct 22 )

Indiana   R +20  R + 84,000 ( R+8 from Oct 22   )

Michigan R +18  R +132,000

Montana   R +18  R +39,000  ( R+1 from Oct 22 )

Nevada  D +3  D+11,000 ( R+4 from Oct 22 )

Ohio      R +10  R + 77,000

Tennessee  R +35   R +410,000 ( R+2 From Oct 22 )

Texas  R +15  R +689,000   ( R+5  from Oct 22 )

Wisconsin R +7 R+ 26,000 ( R+5   from Oct 25 )

 

According to NBC News, 24 million early-voting ballots already counted -- more than 2014:

 

As of Wednesday, 43 percent of early voters are Republican and 41 percent are Democrats.

At this point in 2016, 43 percent of early voters were Democrats and 40 percent were Republicans.

At this point in 2014, though, 44 percent were Republican and 40 percent were Democrats.

 

NRO's Jim Geraghty says in Arizona, the GOP’s early vote lead may be insurmountable:

 

I don’t want to say Arizona’s Senate race is a done deal.

 

But 1,230,433 Arizonans have voted early, as of this morning. For perspective, that’s approaching the 1.5 million total votes cast in the state in the 2014 midterm elections.

 

There are currently 3.7 million registered voters in Arizona. Of those who have voted early so far, 525,647 are registered Republicans and 413,005 are registered Democrats. Of the remainder, 8,250 are classified “minor parties” and 283,531 are classified “other” or unaffiliated.

 

If you assume that registered Republicans voted for Senate candidate Martha McSally and registered Democrats voted for Kyrsten Sinema in equal proportions, that gives McSally a 112,642-vote margin. That’s a sizable margin one week away from the election.

 

To pull even the early vote, Sinema would need to be winning the unaffiliated and minor-party voters by a roughly 70-30 split.

 

Because there is a Green-party candidate (named, appropriately enough, Angela Green) and some of the state’s 6,463 registered members of the Green party no doubt voted for Green, Sinema would need to win the non-major-party vote by an even wider margin to pull even, maybe 71-29 or 72-28.

 

More good news for Repubs:

 

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Edited by tomkaz

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Just now, patchyfog said:

Might mean something, or not.

 

Whadda you think about it?

I said it above, if early voting totals are setting records and the Dems lead the GOP as they typically do, it means more people are taking advantage of voting early. But with the total numbers setting records, and the GOP taking an unprecedented lead over Dems, it says more GOP are excited enough to get out early. 

 

This is either a sign that GOP voters have newly discovered the joys of time shifting their votes. Or, there is a GOP wave brewing that will mark record total turnout. 

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9 mins ago, tomkaz said:

I said it above, if early voting totals are setting records and the Dems lead the GOP as they typically do, it means more people are taking advantage of voting early. But with the total numbers setting records, and the GOP taking an unprecedented lead over Dems, it says more GOP are excited enough to get out early. 

 

This is either a sign that GOP voters have newly discovered the joys of time shifting their votes. Or, there is a GOP wave brewing that will mark record total turnout. 

That's not the only possibility.

 

I'll pose it through a question...do you not think that some previously Dem voters voted for Trump? Or not. 

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Win or lose, the one good thing about this is that in 4 days it will all be over.

 

The ads on tv, the polls, the ads on tv, the propaganda on all the news channels, the ads on tv, the endless speculation threads on SOL, the ads on tv, and all the ads on tv.

 

Finally, It will be over, and we can begin dealing the ensuing mess (or glory!) on Wednesday.

 

If nothing else, we do indeed live in interesting times.......................

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5 mins ago, patchyfog said:

That's not the only possibility.

 

I'll pose it through a question...do you not think that some previously Dem voters voted for Trump? Or not. 

Did I say it was the only possibility?

 

I do think there were quiet Dem-registered Trump voters. What’s your point? 

 

I also think there were a slew of Unaffiliated voters who voted for Trump, but we don’t seem to be getting early voting numbers on Independents. . 

Edited by tomkaz

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5 mins ago, JoeyZac said:

Win or lose, the one good thing about this is that in 4 days it will all be over.

 

It'll be great to have a break, but it's not gonna last long. Because no matter who wins the House, it's gonna start up again, and get worser before it gets better. That's my unfortunate outlook.

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1 min ago, patchyfog said:

It'll be great to have a break, but it's not gonna last long. Because no matter who wins the House, it's gonna start up again, and get worser before it gets better. That's my unfortunate outlook.

 

Agree, but at least at that point we'll be dealing with actual reality and not endless propaganda laced conjecture.

 

And the ads on tv........... good god, I'd rather watch Duvane hock gold or donate $20 for a Jew food box.

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My wife is doing her best to help the Hallmark Channel beat CNN in primetime. 

 

What does it say about CNN primetime lineup and content when, in a week before an election, it loses to almost everything else on cable, including the Hallmark Ch? 

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4 mins ago, JoeyZac said:

 

Agree, but at least at that point we'll be dealing with actual reality and not endless propaganda laced conjecture.

 

And the ads on tv........... good god, I'd rather watch Duvane hock gold or donate $20 for a Jew food box.

Shamwow! Isn’t that your favorite?

 

511B0DA5-4917-4EA7-B4F3-2FD1A2D7B791.jpeg

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1 hour ago, PlumFishing said:

Shamwow! Isn’t that your favorite?

 

511B0DA5-4917-4EA7-B4F3-2FD1A2D7B791.jpeg

 

He should be in jail for fraud, but his commercials don't irritate me like Duvane's fraudulent patriotic gold ploys or the clearly fraudulent Jew food box.

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4 hours ago, Jetty Jumper said:

The Dems will be finding ballots in the trunks of cars,closets and filing cabinets until they win.

So the old joke among righties is not vote early because then the Dems don’t know how many voters they need to manufacture. Now, this might work in the opposite way and paralyze the vote manufacturers as they are overwhelmed by the implied vote differentials. 

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My thoughts.

R's are more organized and dont need 'help' voting.  Personally I voted early because I will be out of town on bidness.  Second, I have stopped trusting polls.  If the news is willing to lie right to our face, I have zero doubt they would manipulate a poll.

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I'll be a broken record here, but imo it bears repeating at least as much as the drivel coming out of the on air personalities:   If the Democrats dont pick up the house and senate, this in and of itself would represent a massive groundswell shift, aka red wave.  

 

This man has (supposedly) so damaged the R brand in particular and polite poitical discourse in general, and is so reprehensible (so i have heard ad nauseum) that the majority who voted for HRC will... no, MUST... make this a recall election on Trump.   

 

If the Dems dont sweep, this is a gigantic finger in the eye of an already withering MSM and DEmocratic party.

 

 

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