flyangler

DOES RECORD EARLY VOTING MEAN RECORD TOTAL TURNOUT?

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No question, early voting is hitting records all over the country. The conventional wisdom is that in this most heighten of election seasons, this is an indication that overall turnout will hit records. Will that bear out? 

 

I do not doubt that overall turnout in this mid-term election will be up big versus prior cycles. Whether we see a record or near-record would seem to be logical. But, what if early voting is more a function of availability, time shifting and partisan eagerness? 

 

Availability - Early voting is available in more areas now than in any prior election. Thus, greater availability should lead to greater utilization. 

 

Time shifting - Concerns about record turnout on Tuesday, and the long lines that could go along with that, could force more people to vote early. My wife is among those thinking this way. 

 

Partisan eagerness - Self-explanatory as those most eager to vote will self-reinforce their eagerness by getting out early (and often in Chicago?). 

 

My guess is that total turnout will be up, maybe way up, but the % will be lower than the % by which early voting has risen. 

 

What say you? 

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The fact that you are getting a high GOP early voter turnout relative to previous elections could be interpreted to mean that "new voters" ages 18 to 25 are not exclusively Democrat property.

Traditional GOP turnout is usually election day.

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