tomkaz

CRUZing to Re-Election?

27 posts in this topic

Is the turning of Texas blue going to have to wait another election cycle?

 

Looks like Beto, even with $10mm+ of outside-of-Texas funding, is not going to unseat Ted Cruz. Quinnipiac, no friend to GOP candidates, just came out with Cruz 54% O’Rourke 45% polling. Cruz +9%, MoE 4.4%. 

 

That followings CBS and Emerson that had Cruz at +6 and +5, respectively. 

 

RCP average now +6.6. 

 

Interesting thing is those three polls, adding up the results, are 99%, 94% and 89%, all in October. That suggests that the “Undecided” vote is making a choice. 

 

Sure, turnout is everything but I think it might be time to stick a fork in Beto for this election. 

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The Progs will spend over $30m for Bob* Orourke to lose to the son of JFKs assassin.  

 

Its great

 

*Beto is a Hispanic nickname for boys with names ending in”berto”.

 

This fools name is Bob.  He’s a mick 

Edited by jkrock

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I cant think of one time I actually voted FOR someone. usually, im voting against someone, or at minimum, im holding my nose and gagging while I vote for the lesser of two chitbags. 

 

that's said, this dynamic has become the norm. think that's the difference between my generation and my parents. 

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9 mins ago, HugeDinghy said:

I cant think of one time I actually voted FOR someone. usually, im voting against someone, or at minimum, im holding my nose and gagging while I vote for the lesser of two chitbags. 

 

that's said, this dynamic has become the norm. think that's the difference between my generation and my parents. 

I agree with this.  I certainly voted against Hillary wishing I had a better anti-hillary choice.

 

But after seeing Trump is a man of his word... doing what he told the voters he would do... seeing how he fights dirty politics with strength... and seeing how en fuego he makes the true political deplorables.. I will be voting FOR him this next time.

 

I love leftist flambe' , can't get enough of it

 

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4 hours ago, hamlet said:

I agree with this.  I certainly voted against Hillary wishing I had a better anti-hillary choice.

 

But after seeing Trump is a man of his word... doing what he told the voters he would do... seeing how he fights dirty politics with strength... and seeing how en fuego he makes the true political deplorables.. I will be voting FOR him this next time.

 

I love leftist flambe' , can't get enough of it

 

I love just watching the evil ooze out of Democrats and their supporters! They still don't get it...America is moving in another direction and they don't like it! 

 

At a time when Republicans are being shot, stabbed, doxxed, beaten, mailed powder, run out of restaurants, and sent death threats, Hillary Clinton urges Democrats to be even more uncivil. What an irresponsible statement. Every Democrat should denounce.

— U.S. Senator Bill Cassidy, M.D. 
Edited by TimS
Please don't post links to twitter here - thanks

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14 mins ago, Billybob said:

I thought the polls were bull****?

 

You seem to yell that on a regular basis, likely with reason.

 

But please find where I, me, Tom, said that, that ain’t my issue.

 

I call polls BS when their internals show a heavier than population of a certain cohort, usually party identification which is rarely “smoothed out” in the analysis. I call polls BS when they are of “adults” and electoral conclusions are drawn even as the poll questions show 30% of those polled don’t vote. I call polls BS when the wording of the questions points toward a particular answer, or when there’s no clarifying follow up. Or when reportage of the poll topline results ignoring exculpatory answers to other questions. 

 

I pick polls apart, that’s my quant side. Maybe you have missed a dozen or two posts where I have done just that. 

 

I look for deviations between the sample demos and society at large.

 

I look for overweights of any cohort that can affect the outcome. 

 

And, when the absolute number of any polls might be dismissable, I look for trends across multiple polls. In this case, Cruz widening his lead. 

 

Polls are not BS, abusing the methodology, playing with wording and less than honest reporting of results is BS

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Polls, bah, humbug!  The only times I've ever been polled the pollsters have hung up on me after only a few questions (usually after only one).

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the reason polls are bull these days is based on methods of generating the population polled.

Just heard an article on the radio... said one of the latest Cruz polls in Texas needed 17,000 phone calls to get 200 respondents.  Not likely those 200 respondents represent in any significant way a meaningful population.

 

Who has a phone anymore?  And who is willing to spend their precious time on political ploys.

Not me.  Not many.

 

If any do want to spend their time, they have a good chance of lying.  I admit I have done that a few times.

Yes I know all about how the math models account to liars.  They are terrible at getting poll results right... so no reason to believe the math models are right about liars either.

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2 hours ago, HugeDinghy said:

I cant think of one time I actually voted FOR someone. usually, im voting against someone, or at minimum, im holding my nose and gagging while I vote for the lesser of two chitbags. 

 

that's said, this dynamic has become the norm. think that's the difference between my generation and my parents. 

Vote for the guy you hate a little less. 

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Funny how the Libs are running a guy with a DUI that talked about women with no talent but large busts.

 

Seems like a perfect Democrat to me.  

 

Can you imagine if he had an "R" next to his name?  The smear campaign would be brutal.

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2 hours ago, hamlet said:

I agree with this.  I certainly voted against Hillary wishing I had a better anti-hillary choice.

 

But after seeing Trump is a man of his word... doing what he told the voters he would do... seeing how he fights dirty politics with strength... and seeing how en fuego he makes the true political deplorables.. I will be voting FOR him this next time.

 

I love leftist flambe' , can't get enough of it

 

Anybody but Clinton was first and foremost. After watching Trump defeat the Repubs in the primaries, then seeing Hillhag actually get caught cheating in at least her primary with the Bern (who I think would've beaten Trump in the general election), I voted FOR Trump in 2016, and will do so again in 2020.

 

He has taken on the left leaning media and destroyed them. I'm not sure there's anybody alive today, other than Trump, who could (or would) do that.

 

As far as flambe' goes, there's six more delightful years of flaming heads to go.  

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