fishfinder401

Time to start paying attention to Florence?

116 posts in this topic

Water was mostly clean at dawn this morning when I was out. Very nice whitewater left after the wavebreak for bass and blues. Funnies had skedattled at 2 spots I tried though. 

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Checked a few more beach cams on the mainland. Surfers are out, so watch where you throw that plug. :cool:

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44 mins ago, Bullred44 said:

Getting heavy rain now in Onslow County.  Wind is picking up.

Hope you and everyone else in the Carolinas are spared as much as possible by this storm. Our prayers and best wishes go out to you.

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Can always watch the Frying Pan Shoal cam if youre bored...

 

[Edit: wasnt posted @Bullred44 ! Just a general comment. Stay safe & watch those rains man]

The conditions you're seeing in above *video are roughly Cat 1-ish winds. Because the platform is raised, it's a little worse up there on webcam than down on ocean surface.

 

As for the wind part of the storm: one important thing to note is the "anonymously flat radial wind profile". It's all the same.

Screenshot_20180913-162743_Twitter.jpg.186f0141e5d8a24fb3562557104d48d4.jpg

Recon flight shows the same wind a hundred miles outside the eye as the eyewall itself.

 

Younger and less mature storms ramp up windspeed sharply towards the core, as air pressure falls off a cliff close to the eye:

1996-Fran.png.628dec7a8b1dcafd05eaae95f5b9aff2.png

 

Basically my take on this is:

when you have a young storm with a tiny eye, and sharply spiked pressure trace, it's like a figure skater spinning fast on ice with her arms tucked in. After the eyewall replacement cycles enlarge the eye to huge dimensions, it's akin to the skater extending her arms back out a good bit. If the storm then loses power and becomes uniform in structure, that makes it much tougher to spin the core back up to higher speeds with "it's arms out," so to speak.

Screenshot_20180913-162743_Twitter.jpg

Edited by rst3

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2 hours ago, SkunkLuvver said:

Advice: walk the dog, run to McDonald’s, get the kids whatever they want. Crush up a Benadryl and stick it in their milkshakes and do their homework for them... you’ll be on the water before sunset.

 

obviously I’m not a parent and if I were they’d quickly be taken from me but I stand behind the plan. :howdy:

excellent plan :th:

 

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Strongest winds beginning to move onshore now, starting at Cape Lookout. Storm nearly stationary, moving ~5mph to NW

plot_wind_pres.png.8dee8dab4e1a2f8c54744becf97cd27f.png

 

Burst of convection a little while ago helps to mix winds down to surface. That's what is showing up for Cape Lookout now

F.gif.1e00c78e2231c4b52f4556cc0e820bd5.gif

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In reality, storm is probably a tad healthier than it was 24 hours ago.

 

Can see the high altitude cirrus clouds feathering out slowly clockwise around most of storm, (above the lower parts of the hurricane which spin counterclockwise). 

F.gif.1773403dfcf49f3f3a1f176f49b04ddd.gif

The cirrus clouds represent the outflow or vent to the heat convection taking place below. Healthy outflow = happy storm.

 

Yesterday, the storm looked crappier-- with outflow stifled in the southern quadrants, due to SW shear blasting into the storm 

goes16_ir_06L2.gif.b258988e5e2af536ef071d77233837e9.gif

 

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Rain time. Real threat from storm, (flash flooding/river flooding), has arrived. 

 

Several rivers already risen into 'major' flood category. Large band ripping moisture off Gulf Stream and training over near-coastal areas. 12" already recorded on one gauge 2hrs ago. I imagine its up to 16+ now

Rain.gif.8ec9ce84b90630bc57796b2d3c3b3012.gif

 

Flo closely following forecast track.

20180913_232602.jpg.4c815621ef37213e16b7c7b7f7fccb2c.jpg

Winds slowly decay over next 24hrs. Tropical deluge ccontinus for next 1-2days, with the worst affected areas spending 18-24+hours under continuous sky faucet. 

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@Bullred44 still good? hanging in there with the rain? 

Latest precipitation forecast has you sort of in the bullseye of the bullseye. some concerning totals over next 24hrs

Swim.gif.1326e39699467eff1601eedf6c7d9cfd.gif

Give us a shout if you're still on mobile 

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Never a good feeling when its 2am, pitch black no power phone dying, 60kt winds and biblical rains-- and then you have to climb onto your roof to keep from drowning.

Screenshot_20180914-094727_Twitter.jpg.e84ec102a7089b9dfd65653ef9f582a7.jpg

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Screenshot_20180914-094523_Twitter.jpg.0da56889955095b2dbd391260fcbdbff.jpg

 

Luckily for them, 2 National Guard swiftwater rescue teams were on standby. They went in and plucked about 150 people from their roofs and attics.

 

Deluge continues. Astounding rain totals stacking up. Almost 34" in Atlantic Beach last 24hrs. 

Screenshot_20180914-095559_Chrome.jpg.22531a8063a0bf3366d775db9b366ff9.jpgScreenshot_20180914-095626_Chrome.jpg.ea1501d84eee03c8b7200b2d47d366bf.jpgScreenshot_20180914-095728_Chrome.jpg.6322600bbdbe01eba4e0157f186a0be9.jpg

 

Can see the eye go over this weather station. Winds died suddenly 

Screenshot_20180914-100246_Twitter.jpg.ed573190fbf92a923332844ea333f7a4.jpg

 

Eyewall looked a little peppier overnight, just before it came onshore in Cape Fear.

1am:

20180914_005250.jpg.ccf45fa5cd4f5ea512ceba8e18947863.jpg

 

Once half the eye is over land, the storm really starts to break down much faster. At that point, over 50% of the inflow into the eyewall originates over land, and half the storm is cut off from its energy source(ocean). 

After its brief trip over Cape Fear, can already see degradation of eye

Screenshot_20180914-100614_Chrome.jpg.a7c67eb8a87d618739e0d7676b2be5a5.jpg

 

Storm effectively stationary last hour. The eye should resume a slow WSW drift towards Myrtle Beach at some point soon 

Edited by rst3

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