fishfinder401

Time to start paying attention to Florence?

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The rain today is left over from the prior storm that had crossed southern FL, then ran into the gulf hitting the Louisiana area. It's been causing flooding issues in the upper mid west and has moved east, causing issues in Ohio.PA, etc...I'm second guessing whether the swell I witnessed yesterday was due to Florence...the wind yesterday AM was out of the N or NE and the swell was coming in from the S or SW 

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2 hours ago, albacized said:

The rain today is left over from the prior storm that had crossed southern FL, then ran into the gulf hitting the Louisiana area. It's been causing flooding issues in the upper mid west and has moved east, causing issues in Ohio.PA, etc...I'm second guessing whether the swell I witnessed yesterday was due to Florence...the wind yesterday AM was out of the N or NE and the swell was coming in from the S or SW 

We're you outside the PJ yesterday morn?

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4 hours ago, albacized said:

The rain today is left over from the prior storm that had crossed southern FL, then ran into the gulf hitting the Louisiana area. It's been causing flooding issues in the upper mid west and has moved east, causing issues in Ohio.PA, etc...I'm second guessing whether the swell I witnessed yesterday was due to Florence...the wind yesterday AM was out of the N or NE and the swell was coming in from the S or SW 

I had heard the swell would start early from that other storm then get worse.

 

A week of big swells will add up.

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17 hours ago, albacized said:

I'm second guessing whether the swell I witnessed yesterday was due to Florence...the wind yesterday AM was out of the N or NE and the swell was coming in from the S or SW 

That's right. The swell the past few days has been from the 'local' weather setup of strong Easterly winds. I checked out the buoy readings from yesterday and today and the swell period was roughly 11 seconds. That indicates a swell of roughly local origin. 

 

When the swell period increases to 14, 17, or even 20 seconds-- that's groundswell from a far off storm. Was reading up on this today to try and figure out how and when Flo's swell will affect the RI coast.

Screenshot_20180911-004621_Chrome.jpg.bf92f486b3fe3d3e5441783ca85e3a85.jpg

 

The other interesting thing is how fast these swells travel in the deep ocean. Similar to a tsunami, swells(energy) from distant storms traverse the deep water of the high seas at incredible speed.

 

(At least according to this site) the formula is 1.5×period= speed in the deep open ocean. So the energy of a 20 second swell would race across the deepwater high seas at 30kts. As this energy comes upon the shallower continental shelf, its forward speed slows markedly, and the swell begins to rise up into a familiar swell 'wave.'

 

These ground swells roll much more slowly across the continental shelf, then eventually approach the shoreline where the shoal up as the bottom rises in the last few seconds of their long journey

Screenshot_20180911-005606_Chrome.jpg.47ccd1fa3c138932e4465754a3fd2e50.jpg

 

Imo, now that Florence is jammin, it seems the wave energy will probably race toward RI at say, 25+ kts.. then slow when it hits the canyons.. and impact RI beaches starting early Wednesday, continuing on into Friday.

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I'm sure quite a few saw this image today, but it's worth posting again. The inner core of Florence during a period of rapid intensification

Flomeso.gif.29a004f483ab2822d950c0724eef695e.gif

Headsup.gif.8c18e1d57ac6aff6d4302255504aa6c6.gif

 

Flo leveled off tonight, for several reasons. First of which is an eyewall replacement cycle. After the initial ramp up of a powerful cyclone.. an outer ring of thunderstorms often forms outside the main eyewall.

Ex:

5b9752d1f2a53_images(6).jpeg.cc53eddeb55fa8a7b68856c1a3a9b8b4.jpeg

 

This chokes off the inflow to the core, and the max windspeed drops somewhat.. typically for say 12 to 18hrs. During this time the inner core dies off completely and the new outer, larger ring takes over as the eyewall. This enlarges both the eye, and the overall windfield. Once the eyewall replacement cycle is complete with a new eyewall, strengthening can begin once again. Most experts are on board with another round of intensification ramping things up again on Tuesday.

##

 

> I did want to stress that Florence will likely be the most intense hurricane to hit the 'mid' eastern seaboard in our lifetimes.

 

Look folks: I've been doing this a long time. It's very, very difficult to bring a Category 4 on shore in the Carolinas. Yes-- they happen out at sea *near* the Carolinas every now and then, but to actually bring that caliber of hurricane on shore? at that latitude?? Well that's exceptionally rare. 

 

As for my opinion on impact: the immediate coast gets flattened within 50 miles of the eye. Winds in the right front eyewall will gust into the 140s on the coast. As landfall approaches, surge will completely overtake and cover barrier islands to the right of the eye. They will be totally 100% underwater. Reclaimed by the sea.

Screenshot_20180911-014434_Chrome.jpg.643ae5de913dcbd5949973a50e3d40c4.jpg

 

As bad as this looks for the coast-- and it will be horrendous-- the big wildcard for the storm may actually be inland flooding. Yeah.. the coast and eastern NC will be hit terribly by surge, and extreme winds... but the fact is-- much of the impact area is open rural farmland. Outside the immediate strip of coastal communities? eastern NC is largely barren. It's a wide coastal plain of industrial pig farms and tobacco plantations. 

IMG_-b9x7kh.jpg.98a06945a982e1c9e104fc50b240fbe5.jpgIMG_-ht3187.jpg.dbde3aa07675b54623fd7cf124e0635f.jpg

 

So after the coast.. Florence is just picking on hogs for a hundred miles. NBD.

But after that? Then comes the risk for catastrophic flooding. *This is definitely not set in stone by any means though*. The models are all over the place with respect to rain totals: Some say 10ish; others up to 30.

 

10 inches sure is lousy to get.. but 'doable' for those impacted.

25? That is not.

 

If 15-25 inches falls in the Appalachians of NC and Virginia, it will be biblical. Here's what happened when hurricane camille dumped 8-27" on the region 50 years ago:

20180911_020932.jpg.47622448010e84f7715b24727e4fe182.jpg

cover-woods-mill-sign.jpg.99fdbaf5e958fa6567fd2c96681f7e56.jpg

20180911_020848.jpg.cef1a29f36769ef42db38030651d1662.jpg

20180911_020915.jpg.d83d965f03112c2f4cff1bc80b6c30be.jpg

 

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For those fishing south county this week, here's the surf forecast. Looks like swell from Florence is pretty insignificant on Wednesday...sm storm swell..seas sort of laying down after recent blow...but then things ramp right back up on Thursday. Long period swells. 

20180911_050543.jpg.ce78897e996044114fd4f6af76be9534.jpg

20180911_050621.jpg.a1bf39f3c3cc19b80ddf4d125cbd0074.jpg

 

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Such detailed information. Wow.

 

What does this mean for shore fishing at Misquamicut beach. What time/day is most favorable for surf casting from the shore? Ty

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2 hours ago, rst3 said:

For those fishing south county this week, here's the surf forecast. Looks like swell from Florence is pretty insignificant on Wednesday...sm storm swell..seas sort of laying down after recent blow...but then things ramp right back up on Thursday. Long period swells. 

20180911_050543.jpg.ce78897e996044114fd4f6af76be9534.jpg

20180911_050621.jpg.a1bf39f3c3cc19b80ddf4d125cbd0074.jpg

 

Thursday looks fishy

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