fishfinder401

Time to start paying attention to Florence?

116 posts in this topic

Let’s go Florence!

clap, clap, clap clap clap 

let’s go Florence! 

Clap, clap, clap clap clap 

let’s go Florence! 

Clap, clap, clap clap clap 

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RI not out of the woods yet, despite odds strongly favoring the Carolinas and mid Atlantic taking it on the chin.

 

Two camps at this point:

 

1) Northern track/coastal clip & stall

US GFS(latest)

gfs_florence.png.a652106069b904424ec9722a709b97b2.png

 

FV3GFS(*experimental/next gen GFS model)

Screenshot_20180908-013223_Twitter.jpg.2751746de419fb3c625c29df4c01aa15.jpg

 

Obviously ^this situation would be the worst for RI. A weakened but stalled hurricane would crawl east off the RI coast for 36hrs, driving weather inshore and turning everything to chocolate milk for days and days. I imagine the albacore migration inshore could be severely disrupted.

 

2) SE US/mid Atlantic-only track

EUROPEAN 

ecmwf_florence.png.ffd9ab2e365496d5826ea1ca56d2dbdf.png

 

> Thankfully for us, this ^track is favored by experts at the moment. Strong storm plows straight inland, way south, then pokes around the appalachians awhile...dumping over 20" of rain there, wrecking mtn towns with mudslides and flash flooding.

20180908_020249.jpg.972b37ce1531a4f1326cd21c93ff2b7b.jpg

 

Important to note entire eastern seaboard will feel the effects of this storm regardless of where it goes: Groundswell will run hundreds of miles away from center. 

Screenshot_20180908-014546_Twitter.jpg.96edd2c1df35ea38e8d54bfdc66ff7ca.jpg

 

 

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59 mins ago, Kooky said:

Seriously I tune here first for weather 

Betcha that’s a forum that would see some activity on here! :)

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Posted (edited)

5 hours ago, Kooky said:

Seriously I tune here first for weather 

Hahaha :).

Welp, I can't compete with the many fine lady forecasters out there... but at least I try to throw in some neat maps??

nancy-zimmerman.jpg.83b2eb8c2711b584dd56e2ab9d33ebe7.jpg

 

As for Flo, latest storm intensity models are very concerning. Looking at a 3 or perhaps even Category 4 (*at the time the storm crosses the coast.) It almost certainly will be a 4+ when out over open water,..but oftentimes it's tough to maintain that full strength as the storm comes into shore.

20180908_111339.jpg.4c561e8d530f05069ca3fb260b8ef057.jpg

 

If anyone remembers Category 4 Hugo in '89 ..this upcoming storm at least has the potential ti be close to that, if not similar.

hugo15.jpg.a34ba74aa03543dc75d2975ce3b510c4.jpg20180908_130636.jpg.883d2e80432cdf1e00322af6df071ea8.jpg

20180908_130615.jpg.7182a7bd18ea5f1cb198f9a2b6fa2e80.jpg

20180908_130649.jpg.836f40df3c950c47e0fd5f6b74ddf39a.jpg

 

One storm even worse than Hugo was Hazel, back in the 1950s. That thing was a monster: 

 

[...]as a result of Hazel, "all traces of civilization on the immediate waterfront between the state line and Cape Fear were practically annihilated." The December 1954 NOAA report on the hurricanes of the year states that "every pier in a distance of 170 miles of coastline was demolished".

hazel.jpg.5dbdb2c3983e699ba06917b0f1c00a9d.jpg

Edited by rst3

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On 9/6/2018 at 9:38 AM, HugeDinghy said:

I like big weather. Bring it. 

I’m with you. Be out there fishing. On land not so much on boat.  Lol. 

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That's it. I'm calling it. RI in the clear. Sorry Dinghy. You want to surfcast for flying cows? best head south to Cape Fear.

 

Everything's trained on Carolinas at this point, and overall spread between different models has tightened up.

Screenshot_20180909-110229_Twitter.jpg.769b743d9c46aa5fb1ddfb9a24efc83a.jpg

 

Model with highest accuracy scores has long been the EURO. After landfall, it has the steering currents in the atmosphere collapse, which means Flo stalls for days and dumps 10-30" of rain. Massive inland flooding may end up being the biggest story here, despite the coast getting crushed. 

Screenshot_20180909-081323_Twitter.jpg.678671adb5b7e6674f64179b062d200d.jpg

Screenshot_20180909-081222_Twitter.jpg.8327cf5113f17d6a7bb08addfa4899b2.jpg

 

A few days ago Flo was badly weakened--after being sheared apart by atmospheric winds. Can see the shear blowing the thunderstorms completely off the circulation on west side. This is bad for hurricanes as it weakens and kills them.

Flo3.gif.8c7273c04c86e147dcb7ef648a0a49d5.gif

 

Well it took a few days to clear those unfavorable conditions, and build back its internal structure. This morning Flo's finally back in the game. Core is rebuilt and aligned, and it's entered an extremely favorable environment for strengthening. At this point it's all systems go for Flo. Should intensify rapidly over next 24-36hours

Flo2.gif.e2d52d4c0ecdcf10aeb1084e8ba0f27c.gif

 

Bottom line: Carolina, you're screwed 

 

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As an aside, I had an opportunity to observe the harbor of refuge walls and the swell action was already evident, although still nothing huge yet (although the center wall had waves crashing over it)

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We'll have to see how much wave action actually ends up affecting RI this week.. but fair chance the swells rolling in will be somewhat sporty. Can get a little sketchy with swells sometimes when fishing, esp at night. Might be nearly calm out and those big assh wave sets rise up out of the darkness.

 

Storm itself is rapidly intensifying tonight. Peep Flo opening her eye. Kind of cool.

Eye.gif.3e6debba418a0630d781986b6dd807bb.gif

 

Nighttime often gives an intensifying hurricane a little extra boost, as the air above a storm cools without the influence of the sun. This means a greater temp difference between the heated water coming off the ocean, and the atmosphere itself--so the oceanic heat/moisture rises faster into thunderstorms. Just like hotair balloons rise best in the cool morning. Same deal.

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On 9/8/2018 at 1:15 PM, rst3 said:

As for Flo, latest storm intensity models are very concerning. Looking at a 3 or perhaps even Category 4 (*at the time the storm crosses the coast.) It almost certainly will be a 4+ when out over open water,..but oftentimes it's tough to maintain that full strength as the storm comes into shortly If anyone remembers Category 4 Hugo in '89 ..this upcoming storm at least has the potential ti be close to that, if not similar.

hugo15.jpg.a34ba74aa03543dc75d2975ce3b510c4.jpg20180908_130636.jpg.883d2e80432cdf1e00322af6df071ea8.jpg

20180908_130615.jpg.7182a7bd18ea5f1cb198f9a2b6fa2e80.jpg

20180908_130649.jpg.836f40df3c950c47e0fd5f6b74ddf39a.jpg

 

We lost our house in Hugo, took a week for any outside help to reach us, roads were impassable. I was 11, but I'll never forget the sound of 100 ft pine trees snapping in half and hitting the house. 

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Posted (edited)

I lived through Hugo as well. Was at the St Thomas YC, in the Virgin Islands watching it all go down. No power for 6 months, phones for 9. That noice is amazing. Like being on a locomotive at full pace. 

Edited by AKotoun

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