fishfinder401

Time to start paying attention to Florence?

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How do you read these charts - I don't see a projected date in your post?  Last I heard it was still off Africa.

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4 mins ago, DZ said:

How do you read these charts - I don't see a projected date in your post?  Last I heard it was still off Africa.

Out of Africa! Great movie, but very sad. :howdy:

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18 mins ago, DZ said:

How do you read these charts - I don't see a projected date in your post?  Last I heard it was still off Africa.

These are its position about a week or so from now, showing the low pressure in the storm, the lower the stronger the storm, these numbers are pretty strong, around a catagory 2 or so

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Helps to follow the ensemble runs, which take the inital storm and slightly tweak the variables to cover a broad range of potential solutions. Gives a better picture considering all the unknowables.

Florence.gif.7b1e73a796c7a53a5a5c703adbdc88e5.gif

Huge spread at tail end of model period. Thats like a 2000mile range. Will need 2 or even 3 more days before things start to become clearer.

 

Should the storm not follow the Sunday weakness passing by in the atmosphere (and then loop north out to sea)...decent odds it continues on NW toward the eastern seaboard, where a huge high pressure to its north will effectively block it in.

20180905_224807.jpg.951a9e91bf091691ac8f2d7b45f48dd0.jpg

 

Bottom line is, most folks caution another few days to go before any forecast or model solution starts to get serious/real.

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7 hours ago, rst3 said:

Helps to follow the ensemble runs, which take the inital storm and slightly tweak the variables to cover a broad range of potential solutions. Gives a better picture considering all the unknowables.

Florence.gif.7b1e73a796c7a53a5a5c703adbdc88e5.gif

Huge spread at tail end of model period. Thats like a 2000mile range. Will need 2 or even 3 more days before things start to become clearer.

 

Should the storm not follow the Sunday weakness passing by in the atmosphere (and then loop north out to sea)...decent odds it continues on NW toward the eastern seaboard, where a huge high pressure to its north will effectively block it in.

20180905_224807.jpg.951a9e91bf091691ac8f2d7b45f48dd0.jpg

 

Bottom line is, most folks caution another few days to go before any forecast or model solution starts to get serious/real.

Oh yeah, definitely too far out to tell what is really going to happen yet, but I would say it's close enough to start watching it. And where did you get that ensemble? Haven't seen that before

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Thanks guys - something else to worry about I guess.  Another thing to screw up the mullet run although that will be the least of my worries ;) 

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1 hour ago, DZ said:

Thanks guys - something else to worry about I guess.  Another thing to screw up the mullet run although that will be the least of my worries ;) 

Yeah exactly, not to mention other places. Hope the whole thing implodes ! :beatin:

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2 hours ago, HugeDinghy said:

I like big weather. Bring it. 

 

1 hour ago, quack said:

big weather = sick day

EXACTLY!! Bring on the wind and surf!!! I will be getting some kind of 24 hr bug that day!

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6 hours ago, fishfinder401 said:

Oh yeah, definitely too far out to tell what is really going to happen yet, but I would say it's close enough to start watching it. And where did you get that ensemble? Haven't seen that before

weathermodels dot com

 

Historically speaking, hurricanes tracking through this coordinate go out to sea and dont hit the US. (Flo is already at a pretty high latitude)

20180906_122434.jpg.69fc7f173d5e33c90e4ad6eb15391806.jpg

 

That said, the developing atmos setup is a little unusual and not typical. So a persistent WNW track w/o hooking north out to sea remains in the cards.

 

As for fishing: decent chance some nice swells roll into RI in about a week, regardless of whether or not this thing makes a close run or hits the US.

In the immediate future, 10-20knots of long-fetch ENE (then SE) wind will be raising seas a bit late this weekend into Monday ...if you like things kicked up a notch with wind from that direction.

 

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2 hours ago, rst3 said:

 

weathermodels dot com

 

Historically speaking, hurricanes tracking through this coordinate go out to sea and dont hit the US. (Flo is already at a pretty high latitude)

20180906_122434.jpg.69fc7f173d5e33c90e4ad6eb15391806.jpg

 

That said, the developing atmos setup is a little unusual and not typical. So a persistent WNW track w/o hooking north out to sea remains in the cards.

 

As for fishing: decent chance some nice swells roll into RI in about a week, regardless of whether or not this thing makes a close run or hits the US.

In the immediate future, 10-20knots of long-fetch ENE (then SE) wind will be raising seas a bit late this weekend into Monday ...if you like things kicked up a notch with wind from that direction.

 

yeah, most models right now seem to be putting a high pressure just north of mass, either way though looks like bermuda is in for something

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Posted (edited) · Report post

Trending more toward ECoast hit vs miss out to sea

 

US GFS

Northern route 

20180907_093415.jpg.483aa919a020388e71961fe593fa96fd.jpg

 

EUROPEAN

Track has shifted south over last 4 model runs, toward the southernmost track shown by UK model

20180907_093400.jpg.15e38d74dfdcf6f3f5ae64ca0b1458cb.jpg

20180907_093426.jpg.29303ee38002459bac1a753d6b15c183.jpg

 

BRITISH UKMET

Has storm way down SE coast, vs mid Atlantic or NE

20180907_093603.jpg.2c2cac86ba3252741821eb5ef791b4c6.jpg

 

Trend south easily picked up on this gif sequence of the official National Hurricane Center forecasts.

Flo.gif.4c12f6c805755c2bacb33d548a29d0bb.gif

If this trend holds.. RI escapes storm effects, and H.Dingy takes a bus to Myrtle Beach to surfcast in 100kt winds

 

Edited by rst3

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