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Post Labor Day “Blue Wave” Polling, Polls and Media Coverage

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I posted this over in the “counting chickens” post but think it should have a properly titled and focused post of its own. The following is the content of those earlier comments:

 

Keep an eye on the post-Labor Day polling on generic congressional preference, there will be a bunk released over the coming weeks.

 

I will make a prediction, the Media-driven polls will all show a rising preference for Dems. Some may take us back to the double digit levels seen at the end of 2017. 

 

But how can that be one might ask? Are things better now or worse now for Trump compared to late last year? 

 

Simple, GOP voter suppression effort that will be abetted by the Dems’ operatives in the Media. They need to simultaneously suppress the GOP vote while drumming up the hope and outrage on the Left. 

 

Mark my words, they will say the shift is due to voters “finally focusing on the issues” now that the summer has come to a close. Yet most polls taken over the summer show people engaged in politics at unprecedented levels for a mid-term cycle. 

 

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This was my follow-up comment to the above, not too long afterward:

 

And as if on queue, an ABC/WaPo poll comes out stating that the Dems have a FOURTEEN POINT ADVANTAGE in generic national preference polling. 

 

 

And there’s Emerson with D+13, Reuters D+13, USAT D+11, all in the week of 23Aug or later. Hmmmm, how could so many polls be swinging so abruptly and seemingly at the same time? 

 

Back to the ABC/WaPo poll, note below they say the lead exists across a range of likely voter models. But you have to scroll all the way to the bottom of a long article to find this:

 

This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Aug. 26-29, 2018, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,003 adults. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.6 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 33-25-37 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents.

 

Get that, 33% Dems, 25% Reps and 37% Indies. Something not feel right about that for a national poll? It should. 

 

Gallup tracks party affiliation on a monthly basis. For the period of Aug 1-12, Gallup reports 27% Dems, 28% GOP and 43% Indies. 

 

Whoa! ABC News scores with Dems having an 8% margin over GOP and Gallup’s polling shows the Dems with a 1% deficit? 

 

WTF is that? ABC News’ “models” aside, how can they use that partisan breakdown with a straight face? As a reminder, back in first week of Nov 2016, Gallup found 31% Ds, 27% R and 36% I. So based on Gallup, the party affiliation gap since Trump was elected has seen the Dems drop by 4% and GOP gain by 1%. 

 

So ABC News has the Dems +8% in their “random” sampling of “adults” (not reg nor likely voters) and their MoE is 3.6%. That suggests that their +14% Dem advantage finding could be off by more than 11%. 

 

I don’t have the time to dive into those other polls of the past week but i find it fascinating that all of a sudden, polls are moving toward the Dems so obviously. 

 

.........................

 

Energized against Donald Trump, Democrats reach +14 in the midterms - ABC News

Sue Ogrocki/AP

With their supporters energized in opposition to Donald Trump, Democrats hold their widest advantage in midterm election vote preferences since 2006, when they seized control of both houses of Congress.

 

Rebounding from a tighter contest in the spring, Democratic House candidates now lead their Republican opponents nationally by 52-38 percent among registered voters in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll – a lead that holds up across a range of likely voter models.

 

Surpassing that Democratic lead in vote choice, 60 percent of registered voters say they’d rather see the next Congress controlled by the Democrats, as a check on Trump, than by the GOP, to support Trump’s agenda. Preference for Democratic control is up 8 points from a year ago.

 

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As I mentioned last week, Silver and 538 are now putting the odds of the GOP holding the house at 1-in-5, or 20%. Get that, 20%.

 

But CNN political analyst Jeff Toobin, yes, from CNN, thinks someone might be getting a bit carried away. Check out Toobin’s tweet related to the 538 tweet at bottom. 

 

RUH-ROH blue wave! Even CNN analyst Jeffrey Toobin is poo-poo’ing poll that has Dems winning the House

Posted at 1:00 pm on September 4, 2018 by Sam J.

Gosh, this poll reminds us so much of another poll … one we kept seeing in 2016 about who would win the presidential election.

How did that go again?

Huh.

 

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Edited by tomkaz

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One of these things is not like the others:

 

GENERIC VOTE: 

Rasmussen: Dems +4

Economist/YouGov: Dem +5 

Grinnel/Selzer: Dem+2 

ABC/WP: Dem +14.

 

Remember, ABC/WaPo poll over sampled Dems and between that and the MoE, I argue it’s results could be mid single digits. 

Edited by tomkaz

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More demographic shenanigans, this time courtesy of the Kaiser Family Foundation. CNN referred to Trump's sub-40% approval rating in KFF poll, which, if you get down to methodology, you find this partisan weighting:

 

Group Number )  Percentage
Total 1,201 100%
Party Identification    
Democrats 396 37%
Republicans 276 26%
Independents 388

 

37%

 

 

Get that? 11% more Dems than GOP. Go above to see how ridiculous that is. 

 

Be be careful out there.....

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USA Today yesterday:

 

Two More Polls Find Trump’s Approval Rating Below 40 Percent Even as Economy Surges

 

Reference is made to the monthly random polls from CNN and Quinnipiac. 

 

CNN: Trump approval at 36%, down from 42% the first week of August. 

 

Quinnipiac: Trump approval at 38%, down from 41%

 

CNN’s polling sample:

1,003 adults (not “voters” of any type)

MoE 3.8%

34% Dem

25% Rep

40% Ind

 

Quinnipiac’s polling sample:

1,038 self-identified registered voters

MoE 3.7%

34% Dem

25% Rep

33% Ind

8% Other/Don’t know/NA

 

So a 9% oversampling of Dems even though I have shown above that an even split is more reflective of the electorate. 

 

I report, you decide. 

 

But know this, if readers of this dreck really believe it, if the election results are different, what will they think?

 

How angry will they be if their expected result does not come to pass, again, still?

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Meanwhile, the RCP rolling average of the generic congressional preference continues to hold in the D+6 to D+8 range, even as there is a disparity in the underlying polls. 

 

The most recent is D+8 with the following the most recent contributors to the average. 

 

D+3 Economist/YouGov

D+14 Quinnipiac (same poll as discussed above)

D+12 NPR/Marist

D+4 Rasmussen

D+9 Reuters/Ipsos

D+2 Grinnel

D+13 Emerson

 

I showed above the Quinnipiac sample but don’t have the time to investigate the rest. Point is, you can’t have one cohort of polls showing the Dems advantage at low-mid single digits and another cohort showing low-mid teens. Both cohorts can not be correct and something has to give. 

 

The RCP average should not give any Democrat comfort, given the skewed nature of the polling.

 

Exit question: Does anyone really think that GOP will stay home and Dems will turnout in record numbers to support polling showing D+9-11% advantage?

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The polls now agree that the Republicans will most likely gain 2-3 seats in the Senate and might as well

add another as the replacement for McCain will be more reliably Republican than his predecessor. 

 

Now The Dims want us to believe the House will go for Dims but not the Senate? The answer is that the House races do not normally have very many polls for cost reasons. The Dims can claim anything they want...and do.

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31 mins ago, Whopper Bubba said:

The polls now agree that the Republicans will most likely gain 2-3 seats in the Senate and might as well

add another as the replacement for McCain will be more reliably Republican than his predecessor. 

 

Now The Dims want us to believe the House will go for Dims but not the Senate? The answer is that the House races do not normally have very many polls for cost reasons. The Dims can claim anything they want...and do.

 Totally true, cost factors are a big deal in congressional district races. Because of the gerrymandering and other factors, it is very difficult to get a sample of 1000 to 1200 registered or likely voters which is required to get a margin of error between three and four percent.  As a result of that, for most districts, there will only be a couple of polls of any consequence over the months of September and October. 

 

 Well funded campaigns can do their own internal polling, but that will rarely see the light of day.

 

Depending on who you talk to, there are between 30 and 60 House seats that are considered competitive, and could see some directed polling activity from media posters.

 

When you get down to it, the generic preference  polls don’t tell you very much about specific districts, including the dozens of districts that matter. This is why trying to handicap house races is such a crapshoot for even the best posters.

 

And yet, tens of thousands of words will be written between now and election day based on the generic balloting of such polls. Which is why polls  that incorporate voter turn out models heavily weighted to one party or another are not going to provide any sort of reliable data.

 

It actually makes me happy to see these polls that oversample Democrats.   As is often the case over the recent cycles, the Republicans pole at somewhere between two and 4% lower than actual results. 

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House goes to the Democrats. Pretty much conceded by the GOP. 

Senate goes 50-50 with a squeaker in Texas because Ted Cruz, who many here supported, is a human dildo. 

This portends a change at the top in 2020. 

 

Edited by PlumFishing

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Nate Silver's 538 just released its first US Senate results giving GOP 2/3rds odds of retaining control of the Senate. While the liberal world thinks highly of Silver, I am less impressed. His final 2016 prediction set 70%+ odds of Clinton winning. 

 

 

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