flyangler

Counting the election chickens before they hatch?

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NY Times must be awfully confident to be putting out stories like this, the opposite of "Great kid, now don’t get cocky". 

 

So are they this confident or is this an effort to buck up the Dem base? 

 

Democrats, Eyeing a Majority, Prepare an Investigative Onslaught

Sept. 3, 2018

WASHINGTON — House Democrats, increasingly optimistic they will win back control in November, are mining a mountain of stymied oversight requests in preparation for an onslaught of hearings, subpoenas and investigations into nearly every corner of the Trump administration.

While they continue to distance themselves from the most extreme recourse — impeaching President Trump — senior Democrats who stand to control key House panels could soon oversee inquiries into some of the most precarious threats to Mr. Trump’s presidency. Those include whether his campaign coordinated with Russia to influence the 2016 election, if the president obstructed a federal investigation into the matter and what role Mr. Trump played in paying to silence two women in the closing weeks of the campaign who say they had affairs with him.

Their scrutiny could also extend beyond Mr. Trump’s legal troubles to include his administration’s remaking of federal regulations and other policies that the party has disagreed with.

“I am not looking for headlines,” said Representative Elijah Cummings of Maryland, the top Democrat on the powerful House Oversight and Government Reform Committee. “I am going to be defending the truth. We want to look at what is happening under this administration because all of us can agree this is not normal.”

Republicans, who have used their majority to systematically block Democratic demands of the administration, privately fear the onslaught could knock Mr. Trump’s government into a defensive posture or worse. In hopes of scaring voters to the polls, they have begun sounding sirens that Democrats will move quickly to impeach Mr. Trump.

 

(snipped)

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Boston Globe rana big pack of lies today claiming that Harvard had Noooooooo idddearrrrr that Granny Warren was running around claiming she was an Indian.

 

It was frickin pitiful

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11 hours ago, epanzella said:

Ever since Hillary won in 2016 we have known what we have to do!

Indeed, and the sad thing is she received the majority of the popular vote!  Okay, I realize that many who voted for her were illegals, dead, registered in multiple areas, voted multiple times, were bribed ...

 

Let them count their chickens and have their moment of joyful hope ... losing in November will serve to remind them once again that the public is growing increasing tired of their crap!

Edited by Bob fishhead Sproul

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Keep an eye on the post-Labor Day polling on generic congressional preference, there will be a bunk released over the coming weeks.

 

I will make a prediction, the Media-driven polls will all show a rising preference for Dems. Some may take us back to the double digit levels seen at the end of 2017. 

 

But how can that be one might ask? Are things better now or worse now for Trump compared to late last year? 

 

Simple, GOP voter suppression effort that will be abetted by the Dems’ operatives in the Media. They need to simultaneously suppress the GOP vote while drumming up the hope and outrage on the Left. 

 

Mark my words, they will say the shift is due to voters “finally focusing on the issues” now that the summer has come to a close. Yet most polls taken over the summer show people engaged in politics at unprecedented levels for a mid-term cycle. 

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And as if on queue, an ABC/WaPo poll comes out stating that the Dems have a FOURTEEN POINT ADVANTAGE in generic national preference polling. 

 

 

And there’s Emerson with D+13, Reuters D+13, USAT D+11, all in the week of 23Aug or later. Hmmmm, how could so many polls be swinging so abruptly and seemingly at the same time? 

 

Back to the ABC/WaPo poll, note below they say the lead exists across a range of likely voter models. But you have to scroll all the way to the bottom of a long article to find this:

 

This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Aug. 26-29, 2018, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,003 adults. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.6 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 33-25-37 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents.

 

Get that, 33% Dems, 25% Reps and 37% Indies. Something not feel right about that for a national poll? It should. 

 

Gallup tracks party affiliation on a monthly basis. For the period of Aug 1-12, Gallup reports 27% Dems, 28% GOP and 43% Indies. 

 

Whoa! ABC News scores with Dems having an 8% margin over GOP and Gallup’s polling shows the Dems with a 1% deficit? 

 

WTF is that? ABC News’ “models” aside, how can they use that partisan breakdown with a straight face? As a reminder, back in first week of Nov 2016, Gallup found 31% Ds, 27% R and 36% I. So based on Gallup, the party affiliation gap since Trump was elected has seen the Dems drop by 4% and GOP gain by 1%. 

 

So ABC News has the Dems +8% in their “random” sampling of “adults” (not reg nor likely voters) and their MoE is 3.6%. That suggests that their +14% Dem advantage finding could be off by more than 11%. 

 

I don’t have the time to dive into those other polls of the past week but i find it fascinating that all of a sudden, polls are moving toward the Dems so obviously. 

 

.........................

 

Energized against Donald Trump, Democrats reach +14 in the midterms - ABC News

Sue Ogrocki/AP

With their supporters energized in opposition to Donald Trump, Democrats hold their widest advantage in midterm election vote preferences since 2006, when they seized control of both houses of Congress.

 

Rebounding from a tighter contest in the spring, Democratic House candidates now lead their Republican opponents nationally by 52-38 percent among registered voters in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll – a lead that holds up across a range of likely voter models.

 

Surpassing that Democratic lead in vote choice, 60 percent of registered voters say they’d rather see the next Congress controlled by the Democrats, as a check on Trump, than by the GOP, to support Trump’s agenda. Preference for Democratic control is up 8 points from a year ago.

 

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On 9/3/2018 at 6:36 PM, tomkaz said:

 

inquiries into some of the most precarious threats to Mr. Trump’s presidency. Those include whether his campaign coordinated with Russia to influence the 2016 election, ...

 

 

“I am going to be defending the truth. ...

 

LOL,  Russia.     

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22 hours ago, tomkaz said:

 

 

Simple, GOP voter suppression effort that will be abetted by the Dems’ operatives in the Media. They need to simultaneously suppress the GOP vote while drumming up the hope and outrage on the Left. 

 

 

So now you think there's a voter suppression effort against poor defenseless Rep candidates?

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Gents, part of this is probably Rep. efforts to alarm Rep. voters to get more of them out.  The "ruling party" always faces voter complacency in the off year election and the key is to get the Reps, in this case, outraged and fearful enough to get out and vote.  There is a lot of deliberate mis-information going on here on both sides. 

 

The dems want to juice their voters and raise morale and undecided like to be on the winning side.  So we're going to see a lot of screaming and yelling on both sides.  Oh hum.

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2 hours ago, Bob fishhead Sproul said:

Hey if they want to fall for the "we have a big lead" trick and get all warm and fuzzy over it ... well have at it ;)

It didn't work in 2016, but they are sure it will work this time. 

 

What's that thing about doing the same thing over and over, and expecting a different result.

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1 hour ago, swnoel said:

I can't wait to see the alligator tears streaming down their faces and the kicking and crying that'll go on.... just like it was in 2016. They'll never learn...

I worry more about what they will do.  After yesterdays display during the nomination hearing we should all be concerned

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