foxfai

Water temps..... a long way to go

59 posts in this topic

6 mins ago, rst3 said:

Realized I made this^ sound way more doom and gloom than it actually would be...even in worst case cool scenario. And really.. it's more Michigan/Great Lakes/Midwest that have highest chance for a bigger cooldown. New England just loses the mid 70s-mid 80s: those are out for a bit after next week. Probably just plain old 60s for us. NBD

 

fig'd I'd add some more^, so guys can hold off chucking tomato cans at my avatar.. or petitioning Tim to ban my a $s to "stormnerds.net"

 

Also:

1) The bass are coming regardless. Whatever weather happens in May happens. The fish need to feed during their summer growth season and they do that in New England. Whenever they're done spawning, they're moving in here. Cool water warm water they're coming in May.

 

2) "Cool" weather in early-mid May (inland) is high 50s with sun. Ave is mid 60s. Warm is low-mid 70s+. We're all done with highs in the upper 30s and low 40s -- those days are gone for a long time. 

 

3) Even if waters still happen to be extra cool when the fish roll in, no worries. Can be a good thing too. Maybe bass cluster and gravitate a little more than usual around warmer areas (outflows, rivers, backwaters, shallows, certain tides in canal, etc) until things warm up all over.

 

 

I'm glad you added that clarification. Here I was thinking we'd be getting another 3 inches of snow. "Well, RST said it was going to happen so I have to believe it will happen." 

 

Good job calming the masses on your first bullet point there. It's a good point. Bass are coming regardless. 

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Not that it's important

(it isn't)

But if anyone actually wondered why the supercomputers and forecasters think things may cool back to normal for us after next week's warmup (and below normal for those to our west)

 

One thing they are looking at is the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Basically a twin pulse of rising (stormy) and sinking (dry) air that circles the globe every 1-2months.

MJOavgs_allphases_globes_620.gif.1e50e3e7a9a7d2f6c27cc393f768b94c.gif

 

In the fall-winter-spring, when the northern jetstream is active, the position and strength of the stormy pulse in the Indian Ocean & western pacific can impact the flow downstream over North America.

1362_donalda-5.gif.f36a0aee306f44b766062e262c67fc18.gif

 

Different position and strength acts a bit like moving a larger or smaller boulder in a trout stream. A big rock in one spot changes the flow downstream in one way, big rock in another spot does something different. Small rock does crap.

Signs point to MJO in phase 1 in early-mid May. Strength could be low to mod I think. Forgetting all the other atmospheric influences for a minute (el Nino/la niña, etc) phase 1 often shakes out to a pattern much like what the EURO model put out for May 3-10th

20180427_095543.png.ed2b1fa46b7253c77435675055c588e2.png20180426_225253.png.04aadf41a6bcd52ee8f369b01273153b.png

 

Question: "what the eff does this have to do with *freakin bass*, man?"

 

A: lol

Who knows. Just killing time til the cows come home

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Posted (edited)

2 hours ago, rst3 said:

Not that it's important

(it isn't)

But if anyone actually wondered why the supercomputers and forecasters think things may cool back to normal for us after next week's warmup (and below normal for those to our west)

 

One thing they are looking at is the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Basically a twin pulse of rising (stormy) and sinking (dry) air that circles the globe every 1-2months.

MJOavgs_allphases_globes_620.gif.1e50e3e7a9a7d2f6c27cc393f768b94c.gif

 

In the fall-winter-spring, when the northern jetstream is active, the position and strength of the stormy pulse in the Indian Ocean & western pacific can impact the flow downstream over North America.

1362_donalda-5.gif.f36a0aee306f44b766062e262c67fc18.gif

 

Different position and strength acts a bit like moving a larger or smaller boulder in a trout stream. A big rock in one spot changes the flow downstream in one way, big rock in another spot does something different. Small rock does crap.

Signs point to MJO in phase 1 in early-mid May. Strength could be low to mod I think. Forgetting all the other atmospheric influences for a minute (el Nino/la niña, etc) phase 1 often shakes out to a pattern much like what the EURO model put out for May 3-10th

20180427_095543.png.ed2b1fa46b7253c77435675055c588e2.png20180426_225253.png.04aadf41a6bcd52ee8f369b01273153b.png

 

Question: "what the eff does this have to do with *freakin bass*, man?"

 

A: lol

Who knows. Just killing time til the cows come home

You should be on accuweather forums and JB is the best.

Edited by Budlightyear
typo

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Despite the cold water, Bass are confirmed in Buzz Bay as of this morning. Full moon tide this weekend?  Everywhere including New Hampshire border or perhaps beyond will have fresh bass reports. I'll be wading somewhere this weekend.

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Posted (edited)

5 hours ago, The Riddler said:

Despite the cold water, Bass are confirmed  

Sea-lice confirmed.

 

Got 4 after work today.

(bass, not lice:)

 

45°F water.

 

Here's the worst, and most pathetic picture I've ever taken. The brown smudge is a damn lice

20180427_213737.jpg.46f23846588d36c4c3b33b79664cfc56.jpg

20180427_212228.png.082992307ec0f925e665f96271626c59.png

Edited by rst3

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Posted (edited)

Big big month on deck for the salt.. so fig'd I'd chime in one..final..time.. on water temps and the upcoming May weather. More than a couple of species like flounder and squid that are just waiting for temps to break into the low 50s before it's really game on.

 

First off: good news all around.

Yes.gif.e7493babaac3e5286afdb6a5aee2919e.gif

 

Looks like my initial late April read of next month's weather was a bit overly cautious/pessimistic ..aka wrong. Honestly can't find too much data right now that points to a cooler than average May in New England. 

 

Starting Tuesday, it's above average temps for nearly a week. Almost hot for a cpl days inland. However slow to rise the water temps have been so far this spring, it all evens out back to normal after next 6 days.

 

Official NOAA forecast. Though their fx generally has a bit of a warm bias:

20180430_172424.png.6c03f695ad69b57a3d61d61ebb13bed2.png

 

Heres another one. Similar idea. Strongest warmth signal out west.

20180430_172511.png.76d249b936bdfa6e39ea7f1c8decd80e.png

 

Now I'm not saying this weekend will be gangbusters with fishing at peak max awesomeness with sailfish in the canal and guys fishing in wifebeaters at 5am. Water is still very cold. Sh¡t can be a real struggle. But salt season should finally.. legit be open for business.

 

Edit: as far as bass go.. personal opinion is folks north of the canal still have some time before migration front of schoolies gets up to their neck of the woods. Typically, I used to find the first migrants heavy into the north-North Shore (above Cape Ann), about Mother's day. Or some years even a few days later. Generally took about 3 days or so til they hit MMack once they first swarmed into Winthrop 

 

Edited by rst3

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4 hours ago, rst3 said:

Big big month on deck for the salt.. so fig'd I'd chime in one..final..time.. on water temps and the upcoming May weather. More than a couple of species like flounder and squid that are just waiting for temps to break into the low 50s before it's really game on.

 

First off: good news all around.

Yes.gif.e7493babaac3e5286afdb6a5aee2919e.gif

 

Looks like my initial late April read of next month's weather was a bit overly cautious/pessimistic ..aka wrong. Honestly can't find too much data right now that points to a cooler than average May in New England. 

 

Starting Tuesday, it's above average temps for nearly a week. Almost hot for a cpl days inland. However slow to rise the water temps have been so far this spring, it all evens out back to normal after next 6 days.

 

Official NOAA forecast. Though their fx generally has a bit of a warm bias:

20180430_172424.png.6c03f695ad69b57a3d61d61ebb13bed2.png

 

Heres another one. Similar idea. Strongest warmth signal out west.

20180430_172511.png.76d249b936bdfa6e39ea7f1c8decd80e.png

 

Now I'm not saying this weekend will be gangbusters with fishing at peak max awesomeness with sailfish in the canal and guys fishing in wifebeaters at 5am. Water is still very cold. Sh¡t can be a real struggle. But salt season should finally.. legit be open for business.

 

Edit: as far as bass go.. personal opinion is folks north of the canal still have some time before migration front of schoolies gets up to their neck of the woods. Typically, I used to find the first migrants heavy into the north-North Shore (above Cape Ann), about Mother's day. Or some years even a few days later. Generally took about 3 days or so til they hit MMack once they first swarmed into Winthrop 

 

"a bit of a warm bias:"

 

Excellent terminology and grasp of your subject,...you should be a professional writer!

Thank you for adding hope. It looks like I'm launching and fishing today so I should have some sort of report (likely slow with the cold water) in the flounder topic later today........JC

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Paper had L.I. sound at 50 this am. If true that would be very good.

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2 hours ago, Gwiz said:

Paper had L.I. sound at 50 this am. If true that would be very good.

I had CC Bay at 47.5 this weekend. I thought this was pretty good. 

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Bay will warm up the next few days as low tide sand gets warmed up with these hot days.

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Posted (edited)

Channel 7 had Boston harbor/CC Bay water at 48° on today's evening news (Tuesday)

Edited by zak-striper

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35 mins ago, zak-striper said:

Channel 7 had Boston harbor/CC Bay water at 48° on today's evening news (Tuesday)

Yup! Needed these warm nights to keep them up. And the SW wind help a lot too.

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Info reported today, 5/3/2018 by NOAA

Fall River MA - 54.3

Woods Hole MA - 51.3

 

Looking at these I've got to give it another shot today.
 

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