flyangler

WaPo: Trump Headed for Re-Election

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Clearly, any such speculation about the 2020 presidential election is purely that, speculation. But if this Dem strategist is to be believed, Trump, even today, may be headed toward re-election. And not that this former advisor to WJC believes this without a clue as to who the Dems might put forward then. 

 

What at do I think this is, beyond a wake up call to Dems (and the GOP Establishment)? Possibly a reminder that the best way to not have to worry about Trump being re-elected is if he is removed from office beforehand. Not suggesting how, just that's the vib given the outlook is so bleak.  

 

Trump is on track to win reelection

Doug Sosnik, a Democratic political strategist, was a senior adviser to President Bill Clinton from 1994 to 2000.

 

More than half of Americans don’t think Donald Trump is fit to serve as president, yet he has a clear path to winning reelection. If Trump isn’t removed from office and doesn’t lead the country into some form of global catastrophe, he could secure a second term simply by maintaining his current level of support with his political base. 

 

We have entered a new era in American politics. The 2016 election exposed how economic, social and cultural issues have splintered the country and increasingly divided voters by age, race, education and geography. This isn’t going to change.

 

What have changed are the political fault lines that have driven the debate since the early 1980s. Until now, the ideological divides between the parties were largely differences around social issues, defense spending and trade, as well as tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations. Today, the central issue has become populism as voters have moved away from the two political parties and increasingly self-identified as independents. 

 

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In 2016, Trump capitalized on this changing political environment. He consolidated the growing number of angry voters who felt let down by the people and institutions controlling power in the country. Trump’s support from these voters is personal, not ideological. That explains their willingness to stick with him despite his failures of leadership. 

Since Trump’s inaugural address, his focus has been on maintaining his support among this loyal base rather than expanding it. As counterintuitive as it may seem, this could be a winning political strategy. 

 

First, Trump knows that gaining the support of a majority of voters in a presidential election is not a requirement; it’s simply an aspiration. In fact, two out of the last three presidents were elected despite losing the popular vote. 

 

Second, the continued decline in support for both political parties works to Trump’s advantage. The lack of voters’ faith in both parties increases the probability that there will be a major third-party candidate on the 2020 ballot. It will also lead to other minor-party candidates joining the presidential race. The multi-candidate field will further divide the anti-Trump vote, making it possible for him to get reelected simply by holding on to his current level of support. 

 

Third, despite dismal poll numbers, Trump enters the contest with a job approval rating that is certainly at least marginally better than what the current national polls would suggest. Throughout the 2016 election, most analysts tracked the national polling, which failed to capture Trump’s strength in key battleground states. Current surveys continue to understate his support. Many national polls survey all eligible voters, rather than registered or likely voters, which can underestimate Trump, and some voters may be reluctant to admit that they are pro-Trump at all. Add to that the fact that Trump effectively demonstrated during the 2016 campaign that he is capable of expanding his support by effectively demonizing his opponents.

 

Fourth, Trump’s support has largely remained durable with a core group of supporters. These are the voters Trump was referring to when he said that he could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot someone and he wouldn’t lose votes. There is another group of Trump followers whose support isn’t unequivocal, but they have stayed with him because they still believe he will blow up the system and bring about real change. 

In order to maintain and nurture his base, Trump will continue to embrace conflict, which will probably solidify his historically low approval ratings. Trump cannot win a two-person race this way. But he can prevail in a field with strong independent candidates on the ballot. 

 

So for Democrats and others who want to beat Trump, unifying behind one candidate will be essential. In addition, Trump must carry Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in 2020 to win. Efforts should begin now to chip away at his support in these states. 

 

It would be as big a mistake to assume that Trump cannot win reelection in 2020 as it was for those of us who never thought that he could become president in the first place.

 

Edited by tomkaz

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They include a lot of anti vitriol in their denouncement of how things run and their despondence of dnc's progress toward 2020. Constantly stating viewpoints to try and make them stick. I would vote trump again.

i listened to MA pol capuano on the radio stating the puerto rico pretend crisis. Supplies and equipment are there. Any problems in PR is fully people in PR. But they have adopted a mantra and they continue to repeat it.

2020, about the only thing the DNC could do, imo, is try to get michelle obama in office.

Edited by Dave588

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Trump filed for reelection the day he was inaugurated, or the day after...the quickest of any President.

The polls were garbage last time, and what has changed in their methodology to correct their errors?

There was an article in WaPo about the large amount of money Trump has raised from small donations, individual voters, while the Republican Party is not doing as well, and the Democrats are broke going into an election year. That shows me Trump is popular among the people, the Partys, not so much.

 

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2 hours ago, Gotcow? said:

Trump will switch parties and be swept into the Whitehouse again.

Why would he switch parties? If he were not going to run under GOP, he could run indie before running as Dem. 

 

ETA: Sorry J, did not see your post, yes, concur.

Edited by tomkaz

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Easy win. America loves him and he's getting things done. Exposing the RINOs for the garbage that they are. If tax reform gets passed and the wall gets going it's a lock. And, he'll get his message out to the people via twitter that you won't hear on CNN or MSNBC. 

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WaPo is just saying that because they know they are wrong about everything.

So they way to be sure to get on record all the stuff they want to make sure happens wrong.

 

So it's like chanting, or throwing salt over their shoulders when they step on a crack walking under a ladder or something.

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3 hours ago, Maine Guide said:

Easy win. America loves him and he's getting things done. Exposing the RINOs for the garbage that they are. If tax reform gets passed and the wall gets going it's a lock. And, he'll get his message out to the people via twitter that you won't hear on CNN or MSNBC. 

35% of America loves him.  Pass the pipe.

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Who you guys gonna run Zulu?

Who is the leader of your party?

How much money do you guys have on hand for the upcoming elections?

 

Get that sorted out, and field a candidate, well funded, and maybe, just maybe you guys can give the Trumpster a run for his money...maybe.

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