Aquacide

stock market - i'm not feeling it.

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it looks toppy/soggy to me - some great corporate earnings and a lot of GOP money going to work, but I'm not likey the Dow and Dow Transport charts.

 

this is not advice, but over the last three trading days I've raised cash up to 35%.

 

we don't see anything definitive in Gold, Silver, Oil or Volatility (VXX) but I just got a feeling that after earnings are finished there's nothing short term to drive the market higher.

 

after the TSLA and NVDA earnings I might sell or trim them too, which would take me to 60% cash for the first time since 2010.

 

after that I'm just going to trade the charts short term/ swing trade in one or two positions.

 

this is my aggressive account - my 401k will stay fully invested due to the match and the long long term benefits of dollar cost averaging if the market is going down.

 

anyone feeling the same, or beg to differ ?

 

 

 

GB

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"but I just got a feeling that after earnings are finished there's nothing short term to drive the market higher"

 

I agree with this to some extent, and we were saying Madame President would feel totally inline with it.  I do think under Trump many sector's will see a significant bump.  ie. Rolling back some provisions of Dodd Frank in regards to the financial sector.   Likely to be others that have similar uptrends.

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I worry about the violence in some of the moves.. look at currency.. GBP yesterday...  I think people just don't know what to think... the best performing name one day is the worst performing name the next...  plus it seems that investors are oblivious to macro risks.

 

other thing is that EVERYONE is in Index funds.... retail, 401k, pensions, active who are either closet indexers or hold ETFs   and index funds are unhedged. the market has gone up since 2009 with everyone yapping about management fees....  that 40 bpt management fee is going to look pretty good when your EAFE fund follows the market down.

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Tide goes in, tide goes out.

 

35% cash is significant. Im no where near that but am due to rebalance as i close in on 50 y/o.

 

it is.

 

FWIW we don't age rebalance until 65 now. we have too many clients living til 85+.  35 years is a long time to be weighted highly to bonds.

 

jase -

 

yeah, BAC, EV, BX are not acting well - and that sector should be ceterus paribus. rising rates, loosening of regs and fiscal policy.

 

some of those Trump stocks are in the DJT and DOW, which looks like a double top to me.

 

rather than 'nifty fifty/ taking the market higher we might see a Trumpy Thirty . ie a narrower market.

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What about muni bonds, double tax free for me. Low rate of return but akin to cash? Top quailty r low risk. Again, crappy return rate, like 1 % staggering 1 to 5 years - only highest rated, insured.

 

I'm going to see where rates go and inflation. if it ticks up, REITS or stocks like NLY IVR do well as they make high margins on the point spread.

 

for retired folks a ladder of in state munis always makes sense to me - as long as you buy and issue and hold until maturity. revenue bonded rather than obligation is usually better but lower yield.

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Funny you should say that, on Friday I just sold My Core trading position that I have been trading around for over a year. I expect a pull back and want  to get a better entry price before adding new positions.  If the Charts show I'm wrong I'll reenter at a small pull back.  I made a few 100% on my core trading last year and didn't want to be the "HOG" that got slaughtered.  I locked in my profits.  Still have a few very small positions just to keep me in the game and my mind in the market.

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Not to over simplify things, but I feel there is nowhere to go but down.  We're at full employment, Dow at 20K, earnings good - just can't see it getting better.  I've started taking some profits and dumping the proceeds in tax-free mutual funds.  

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Funny you should say that, on Friday I just sold My Core trading position that I have been trading around for over a year. I expect a pull back and want  to get a better entry price before adding new positions.  If the Charts show I'm wrong I'll reenter at a small pull back.  I made a few 100% on my core trading last year and didn't want to be the "HOG" that got slaughtered.  I locked in my profits.  Still have a few very small positions just to keep me in the game and my mind in the market.

 

yeah that is pretty much me too, though the positions made 70-80% - CRUS, NVDA, TTWO, GPRO. got 40% on TSLA running.

 

I may go back in early summer.

 

I'm worried though.

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Hopefully the good market will allow a steady flow of folks into retirement, which I would think helps the housing sector and the job market, since a position or payroll is opened up.  Those folks that lost their savings in '08 may have been able to recoup enough at this point to finally retire.  I know of a few in my parents generation (late 60's early 70's) that were finally able to have at least one person retire or take a very small/insignificant job to stay busy in the past year, whereas 8 years ago they were in bad shape, financially.  People that can cash out now may put their house on the market so they can downsize or relocate.  Then they purchase a new smaller house/condo elsewhere.  More loans for the banks, and if interest rates go up, that means more padding for the banks to increase lending.  More homes being bought/sold helps retail markets.  I could be way off on this, but I would think we still need to get that group that was affected in 08 into retirement to move things along.

Edited by stryperStalker

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The stock market made my life the luxury it is

A simple 2,000 investment in 1971 thru dividend reinvestment , splits, successful purchase of other stocks from the profits, and the good fortune of recognizing Netflix for what it would be back in 2007 has resulted in over a 200x return. Not a fortune in and of itself but still super

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Hopefully the good market will allow a steady flow of folks into retirement, which I would think helps the housing sector and the job market, since a position or payroll is opened up.  Those folks that lost their savings in '08 may have been able to recoup enough at this point to finally retire.  I know of a few in my parents generation (late 60's early 70's) that were finally able to have at least one person retire or take a very small/insignificant job to stay busy in the past year, whereas 8 years ago they were in bad shape, financially.  People that can cash out now may put their house on the market so they can downsize or relocate.  Then they purchase a new smaller house/condo elsewhere.  More loans for the banks, and if interest rates go up, that means more padding for the banks to increase lending.  More homes being bought/sold helps retail markets.  I could be way off on this, but I would think we still need to get that group that was affected in 08 into retirement to move things along.

 

not to be political, but that I think is dependent on the expansion of medicare/Medicaid and whether it is repealed as part of the ACA repeal. its a tough sell to the Health Insurers to cover old folks when they will not be cross subsidized by young uns on the compulsory individual mandate.

 

those that remained invested from 2008 to now should have done well - as long as they didn't switch to Gold or something silly.

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