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Budlightyear

Big Storm 1/23

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Time to gas up the snow blower and test out the generator for the big boy coming this weekend. Coast is going to be battered possibly like 1978. Low is supposed to stall and loop around with extensive damage due to high tide and possible 60-80 mph winds. Or it could miss us. 

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Couple early thoughts. Summary of latest meteorological opinion from about 20 sources.

 

1) Mid-Atlantic: almost certainly getting crushed. Snow totals down there, 2-3ft.

 

2) NE: We get Snow- but NOT like that. Early early indications for SNE are in 6-12" range for most folks just in from the coast. Lower Cape real iffy for snow. Could be very little, depends on track.

 

3) If the storm was a chick... Mid-Atlantic gets lithe 25 yr-old with big cans. NE gets lumpy 65 yr-old bingo player in sweatpants with slinky tits.

 

Most of time NE gets the blossoming phase of storms, which have the heaviest belt of precipitation. ..Then the storm matures and pushes northeast to Nova Scotia where they get the half-spent second half. Not this time. This time, we get the frumpy old storm while N.Virginia, MD, and Pennsylvania get the sexystorm snowjob.

 

4) Wind/Coastal. Even though snow totals will be much lower in NE, there'll still be a substantial risk to coastal interests from a slow or nearly stalled strong storm sitting just offshore. Multiple tide cycles and a full moon. That said, don't think we see major/extreme flooding like '78. But moderate flooding definitely a legit risk. And there should be some serious beach erosion due to the long period of storm conditions onto shore.

 

Winds-

 

Obviously very strong in Chatham. Sustained 40kts, gusts to 65,70.

 

South Shore at coast, sustained 30kts gusts to 55,60.

 

Inland, breezy. Nothing insane.

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I hope the dredging project is complete at Town Neck beach before it hits. It sounds like it could make a mess of what was just done, especially should the wind directions and velocity be sustainable over any length of time.

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This was put out yesterday, but still applicable.

 

Although the computer models for this storm have been more consistent than normal, there's still a fair bit of uncertainty... even this morning.As the disturbance upstream moves onto North America from the Pacific today, meteorologists will be able to take direct measurements that were not possible over water. This data will get plugged into the models and we should have a pretty good idea how things will go for down by tomorrow. Thursday, the setup will be close enough to make reasonable snow forecast for NE. Pretty much already a lock for Mid Atlantic. But questions remain here in NE.

 

Note: the 0-2" of precipitation on image refer to water. Equals 0-20" snow.

post-62927-0-28747700-1453206270_thumb.png

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Beginning to sound like a fart in a hurricane...................

 

just sayin.............

Thursday we'll have clarity what's going on for NE. Somebody in the mid Atlantic is getting walloped, no doubt there. Somebody down there is getting multiple feet, and some portion of the coast is definitely getting whacked with strong wind and big tides.

 

But... there will be a **very sharp cutoff to precipitation on the northern side. Where that cutoff sets up depends on where the storm starts out, and where it exits into the Atlantic.

 

As it stands now: low chance they even bust the plows out north of Route 2. By Thursday we should have a pretty good idea whether that cutoff is at Rt 2... or as far south as NYC-ish. Tomorrow will tell us which way things are seriously leaning. By Thursday, the meteorologists should know enough to call 'some snow' for Mass... or essentially 'no snow'.

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Watched the weather at 6 pm in a Springfield station and she said a "possible" winter weather "event" for Sat onto Sunday............

 

We'll give you yesterdays forcast tommorow and guarantee 90% acuracy....................

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Man, last year we had it similar, back to back to back. I HOPE this is not the start of it.

 

Just started up my blower for 5 min with one pull. Hope the same come this weekend.

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Thursday we'll have clarity what's going on for NE. Somebody in the mid Atlantic is getting walloped, no doubt there. Somebody down there is getting multiple feet, and some portion of the coast is definitely getting whacked with strong wind and big tides.

 

But... there will be a **very sharp cutoff to precipitation on the northern side. Where that cutoff sets up depends on where the storm starts out, and where it exits into the Atlantic.

 

As it stands now: low chance they even bust the plows out north of Route 2. By Thursday we should have a pretty good idea whether that cutoff is at Rt 2... or as far south as NYC-ish. Tomorrow will tell us which way things are seriously leaning. By Thursday, the meteorologists should know enough to call 'some snow' for Mass... or essentially 'no snow'.

rst3, I hope you are right. I'm about 10 miles North of 2.

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rst3,r u a weather babe? Dah I hope so

If by "babe" you mean "shaves face" and "drains it standing up" then, yes. Total hottie.

 

Big storms get me..

post-62927-0-08828400-1453252801.jpg

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Moist and unstable, just the way I like 'em. :cool:

 

In other news, the "bread and milk" talk is heating up on the Jersey forum.

 

-bd

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