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superstriper

dow 13k

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almost upon us may even be today

 

where are all of those posts saying the stock market hates obama when he was elected and predictions of dow 6 k

 

the run from 8k to 13k is wonderful-now others will chime in and say it is fake or only paper profits (which is is not if you cash in) -a nice 60% return over 3 years

 

nice to look at your ira and 401 k and see value again for the older folks

 

some will say it is not obama or the it is the fed or try and paint a bleak picture and some how this is bad but lets be very clear if the stock market stayed at 8k or went to 6 others would say yep see see the market hates obama

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Well, I'll let the erstwhile fishweewee, or Sally Growler correct me if I'm mistaken, but what I see is a re-inflated stock bubble, driven higher by the Federal Reserves forced, artificially low interest rates. I fully expect the stock market bubble to burst again at the slightest provocation; it is that fragile.

 

I hope that I'm wrong, but I suspect that I'm not. :(

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The reason "some will say" the various things you mention is because they matter.

 

The market is not a smiley/frowny face to be used as an OboMeter.

 

It is, however, subject to economic laws and human manipulation. It is also inherently chaotic.

 

Here;s one economic law the market can't escape... when the value of the dollar falls, the price of stocks go up... just like the price of gas goes up, and the price of bread goes up, and the price of everything goes up (all other forces being equal).

 

If you inflate the currency, all prices rise. Stocks cannot avoid this. As index funds gets money flowing in, the managers must buy something... dollars chasing fixed amounts of stock... prices rise.

 

Have you noticed that the Dow is no longer around 100 like it was in 1945? The rise from 100 to 13K is not because we loved us a long line of presidents. It is because houses no long cost $8K and cars no longer cost $600 and bread no longer costs $0.25 per loaf and because the average annual income is no longer $2500.

 

 

This in one of perhaps dozens of forces acting on the market.

 

Also, as many think, the markets are driven/manipulated by the super rich. Did you read the Robert Reich piece yesterday where he bemoans how PBO has sold his soul to the superrich? Perhaps there is no wonder the "market" loves PBO.

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yippee.



 



how much money printing did it take to get back here?



 



oh by the way, we've been above dow 14,000 what, 4 years ago? 



 



and it dropped 50% from there.



 



so we should be happy that we're getting back to where we were, what, 4 years ago?  lol.


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Dow Jones Industrial Average, nominal terms 1998-present:



 



DOW.png



 



Price of gold, as a proxy for "real" money when the government printing presses are running 24/7:



 



gold.png



 



Dow Jones Industrial Average versus the price of gold per ounce in US$, to get an inflation adjusted performance.  This basically shows that when you take into account money printing, the performance of the DJIA in real inflation-adjusted terms is an illusion.  For the last decade+, the US stock market has been in a BEAR MARKET in inflation adjusted terms.  Over this period the  Dow hasn't kept up with price increases in energy, food, healthcare, higher education, housing etc. etc. etc.  So who effing cares about Dow 13,000?  Do you guys think we'll make new highs from here?



 



dowvsgold.png



 



 



This is the culprit driving everything up - money printing.



 



MZM_Max_630_378.png



 



Don't like to use gold as a proxy?



 



Take your pick of hard assets.



 



How about oil?



 



Dow vs. West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil.



 



dowversuscrude.png



 



Dow versus Copper:



 



dowversuscopper.png



 



Dow versus Corn:



 



dowversuscorn.png



 



Dow versus Wheat:



 



dowversuswheat.png



 



Dow versus crude oil, unleaded gasoline, heating oil, natural gas, aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, zinc, gold, silver, what, corn, soybeans, cotton, sugar, coffee, cocoa, live cattle and hogs.  bucktooth.gif



 



dowversusgsci.png



 



 



Yaaaay!  Dow 13,000!  freak.gif


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The wealth effect of BS 401k going up, the BS unemployment numbers ( a million people disapear in ONE month?) and the ******* trifecta of newt, santorum and paul will ensure an obumbler victory

 

 

Maybe we can have $8 gas and $7 milk and we can get the DOW up to 15k.

 

 

 

Thanks Helicopter Ben!!!!

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yippee.

 

how much money printing did it take to get back here?

 

oh by the way, we've been above dow 14,000 what, 4 years ago? 

 

and it dropped 50% from there.

 

so we should be happy that we're getting back to where we were, what, 4 years ago?  lol.

 

yep we should-guess you are the camp that liked it low

 

seniors I am sure love the fact that their investments came back

 

I earned 69% on my money in three years-cashed out and very happy about it-no chart you can put up is going to bring me down-

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The wealth effect of BS 401k going up, the BS unemployment numbers ( a million people disapear in ONE month?) and the ******* trifecta of newt, santorum and paul will ensure an obumbler victory

Maybe we can have $8 gas and $7 milk and we can get the DOW up to 15k.

Thanks Helicopter Ben!!!!

 

 

habs sr and jr made wonderful plugs-I have tons of them but would never put a price on those-I never fish without em

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yep we should-guess you are the camp that liked it low

seniors I am sure love the fact that their investments came back

I earned 69% on my money in three years-cashed out and very happy about it-no chart you can put up is going to bring me down-

 

If they are then they are not thinking clearly.

 

They should be unhappy if their investment is "back to where it was"... and it now buys half of what it used to.

 

Inflation... currency manipulation... fake money made from air... get it?

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Quote:

Originally Posted by superstriper View Post

 

habs sr and jr made wonderful plugs-I have tons of them but would never put a price on those-I never fish without em

 

werd.

 

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Kathleen Hays interviewed a woman today on Bloomberg who spoke of the tin foil hat, data manipulation groups on both sides of the aisle. She must have read this thread before she went on the air; she described it to a T.

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the fed added 2 tril to its balance sheet since 07

 

And the DXY has been flat, the price of a gallon of gas is about the the same, NG is cheaper, housing is cheaper ... About the only things in my life that are vastly more expensive than 2007 are food, healthcare and upcoming higher education costs (and yes it hurts). I'm not sure if any of those increases are significantly related to the expansion of the money supply. Most of the newly created money is not even printed or in circulation. Anybody who says they would rather have 8000 dollars in 2008 money than 13000 dollars in 2012 money is a liar.

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