What we will know by 7pm...

[jmjftw]

Andrew Gelman of Columbia University has taken a recent set of our simulations to look at what may happen conditional on the outcomes of the first states to close their polls at 6 and 7 PM. The bottom line? If those states go roughly as expected (meaning, say, an Obama win in Virginia and a close race in Indiana), we can conclude with almost literal 100 percent certainty that Obama will win the election:

Now, what if the vote margin in Virginia, Indiana, Georgia, South Carolina, and Kentucky were to equal the expected -5.7%? We pipe this assumption through our model by calculating, for each of our 10,000 simulations, the average vote margin in these five states, and then restricting our analysis to the subset of simulations for which this vote margin is within 1 percentage point of its expected value (that is, between -6.7% and -4.7%). Out of our 10,000 simulations, 2800 fall in this range; that is, we predict there is a 28% chance that McCain's average vote margin in these five states will be between 4.7% and 6.7%. What is of more interest is what happens if this occurs. Considering this subset of simulations, Obama's expected national popular vote margin is +4.7%, his expected electoral vote total is 343, and the conditional probability of an Obama victory is 100%: he wins the electoral college in all 2800 simulations in this condition.

 

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/...w-by-7-pm.html

[Wayne Tj]

I think that anyone breathing air knew this morning at7:00 AM how this was going to play out.

 

Why do you think that so many are upset.

 

Here's my model.... the guy selling Obama campaign buttons (didn't they use to give these things away ) on Lexington Ave outside Grand Central Terminal for the last 6 weeks has been outselling the McCain button guy 3 to 1.

[AdrianF]

I think that anyone breathing air knew this morning at7:00 AM how this was going to play out.

 

Why do you think that so many are upset.

 

Here's my model.... the guy selling Obama campaign buttons (didn't they use to give these things away ) on Lexington Ave outside Grand Central Terminal for the last 6 weeks has been outselling the McCain button guy 3 to 1.

 

 

i dont think the guy at 38th n 7th has sold one of either

 

 

whats that mean

[eddy]

Andrew Gelman of Columbia University has taken a recent set of our simulations to look at what may happen conditional on the outcomes of the first states to close their polls at 6 and 7 PM. The bottom line? If those states go roughly as expected (meaning, say, an Obama win in Virginia and a close race in Indiana), we can conclude with almost literal 100 percent certainty that Obama will win the election:

Now, what if the vote margin in Virginia, Indiana, Georgia, South Carolina, and Kentucky were to equal the expected -5.7%? We pipe this assumption through our model by calculating, for each of our 10,000 simulations, the average vote margin in these five states, and then restricting our analysis to the subset of simulations for which this vote margin is within 1 percentage point of its expected value (that is, between -6.7% and -4.7%). Out of our 10,000 simulations, 2800 fall in this range; that is, we predict there is a 28% chance that McCain's average vote margin in these five states will be between 4.7% and 6.7%. What is of more interest is what happens if this occurs. Considering this subset of simulations, Obama's expected national popular vote margin is +4.7%, his expected electoral vote total is 343, and the conditional probability of an Obama victory is 100%: he wins the electoral college in all 2800 simulations in this condition.

 

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/...w-by-7-pm.html

 

is this the Monte Carlo Simulation?