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Why has the stock market been rallying?

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1) we're in the middle of earnings season


2) historically, stock market tends to rally from Nov thru March in an election year. once the dust settles on Nov 5 and the uncertainty is removed.


3) markets tend to rally when there is gridlock (ex. dem prez, rep congress).


4) markets tend to do poorly when dem prez + all-dem congress (taxes and regulation).


sort of clouding this scene is that we are likely in the mother of all recessions and post-credit bubble popping.


following a possible rally through march, i'm going to be net short again in u.s. equities.

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i have been buying stocks for the last few weeks, perhaps a little better lately, and talking my lumps on some losers i should have bailed on before


i guess that's called capitulation


but my realized losses since i started a couple of years ago are about 7%


unrealized losses are about the same


considering what has been happening lately, i don't think that's too bad


BTW- every tip i have gotten and acted upon by someone who is supposed to know what they are doing has tanked


every tip i have gotten from your average joe who has no stock has paid off pretty well



go figureheadscratch.gif


my losses have been cut in half by today's rally, to single digits


let's hope it keeps up

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