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Found 1 result

  1. So as this drags on and drags out I am starting to look towards a more "normal" return to life. IMHO that is going to occur when the infection rate is low enough that health care can operate without being inundated with covid cases. I am sure there are other factors but from my perspective that is a big indicator. So what are the current numbers. Now before the crazies and the trolls jump in on this I do not have to the minute numbers. I also do not know that there is a unicorn number that once we hit we are good to go. So lets look at the "raw" info and see what gives. 96 million Americans have committed to a full vaccination schedule and are done (currently valid for 6m protection, waning efficacy against variants) 45 Million have committed to the first vaccine ( I believe yesterday I heard that up to 33% of people have opted out of receiving the second vaccine). 33% of 45 mil should mean an additional 30 million with vaccination completed 32 million Americans have been infected. (duration of protection unclear, also at risk for variant re-infection) 96+32 ( the alleged best protected/infected group) is 128 million or about 38% of America (released yesterday as 331 million), add in another 30 million as above and we are at 158 million or 47% of the American population. so we are minimally a little short, if 50% is the unicorn number. But, if we can count on Americans to get infected slowly we should cross that unicorn threshold of 50% sometime this fall. At that point I could for see opening everything. But there are some caveats. AS the covid lingers, spreading in our country, the ability to mutate and become variant persists. As we know the variants create problems for the vaccinated as well as the unvaccinated and the infected. Just because you got British covid and survived doesn't mean you aren't susceptible to Brazilian covid. Any of our epidemiology teams looking at this more closely now that states are turning down the vaccine and America seems to be reaching it's saturation with those willing to vaccinate?