tomkaz

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About tomkaz

  • Rank
    ‘Luck is a matter of preparation meeting opportunity”
  • Birthday April 21

Converted

  • About Me:
    Mid-50s. Escaped the People's Republic of Connecticut July 2015.
  • Interests (Hobbies, favorite activities, etc.):
    Chasing anything with fins but in FL, no longer LI Sound.
  • What I do for a living:
    Pushing money around (my kids' view)

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Southeast Florida

Recent Profile Visitors

9,866 profile views
  1. An abomination, worse than pumpkin spice in coffee drinks.
  2. He never learns Oh, look, all the rote defensive words meant to ward off cognitive dissonance: Responsible journalism Cult Ankle-biting Dogma Brainwashed Dear leader True believers Cult Gadflies will gadfly....
  3. Yeah, like the volunteer fireman who is also an arsonist, sets fires to get paid. The NYT was nearly Ground Zero for the start of the Russia hoax. So they start it, fan the flames, get accolades for their reportage of a story that had do factual backing whatsoever. Yeah, responsible journalism.
  4. APOLOGY? The dude observed in the same meeting that the Times won two Pulitzer’s for their coverage of the story and that the Times "covered that FAKE story better than anybody else", my addition to his claim. So like Dan Rather, it didn’t matter if the story was false if the sense of the story seemed correct. Where is Dude's news truthiness chart, I think it needs a major revision.
  5. Hmmm, do you now think there is a reason why Obama has been a nearly silent supporter of Biden's bid for the candidacy? The NYT is publishing this quote so it must have passed their super thorough story vetting process, no? Report: Obama Tried to Talk Biden out of Running for President In the most recent Democratic debate, Senator Cory Booker called Joe Biden to task for his constant name-dropping of Barack Obama. “You invoke President Obama more than anybody in this campaign. You can’t do it when it’s convenient and then dodge it when it’s not,” he said in what was one of my favorite moments ever in any of the debates. According to the New York Times, while Joe Biden was seeking counsel on whether to run for president, Barack Obama tried to talk his former vice president out of running. The two men spoke at least a half dozen times before Mr. Biden decided to run, and Mr. Obama took pains to cast his doubts about the campaign in personal terms. “You don’t have to do this, Joe, you really don’t,” Mr. Obama told Mr. Biden earlier this year, according to a person familiar with the exchange. Mr. Biden — who thinks he could have defeated Donald Trump four years ago — responded by telling Mr. Obama he could never forgive himself if he turned down a second shot at Mr. Trump. Mr. Obama has said he will not make an endorsement in the primary, and has offered every candidate his counsel. But he has taken an active interest in the inner workings of his friend’s campaign, to an extent beyond anything offered to other candidates. What is so interesting about this story is how it conflicts with Biden’s prior claim that he specifically asked Obama not to endorse him. "I asked President Obama not to endorse me. He doesn't want to. Whoever wins this nomination should win it on their own merits.” If Obama was trying to persuade Joe not to run, it’s highly unlikely that Biden would have had to ask for him not to endorse him. Not that anyone really believed Joe’s story anyway. Another fun nugget in this story is what is revealed about Obama’s search for a running mate. According to the New York Times, Obama specifically wanted someone to balance the ticket on the issue of experience. Obama said at the time he wanted someone older, with gray in his hair. Biden was a top contender, but thirty alternatives were considered. It came down to Biden and two younger options: Tim Kaine of Virginia and Evan Bayh of Indiana. “In Mr. Biden, [Obama] found a running mate who would conjure the comforting past and provide experience he did not possess, but would not maneuver for the presidency from the No. 2 slot.” After settling on Joe, Obama told Kaine, “You are the pick of my heart, but Joe is the pick of my head.” It’s obvious that Biden was always meant to counter Obama’s lack of experience and nothing more. And Biden’s experience ain’t all that great. As former Defense Secretary Robert Gates has noted in his memoir, Joe Biden “been wrong on nearly every major foreign policy and national security issue of over the past four decades.” If there’s anything that we can gather from this story it’s that Obama really doesn’t think as highly of Joe Biden as Joe Biden wants us to believe.
  6. 34 views and no one? Wow!
  7. The problem is their reliance on national polls which would only be applicable if there was a national popular vote. In 2016, Clinton's vulnerabilities were evident in state-level polls that used 2014 turnout models, not 2008 nor 2012 turnout models. For example, Clinton wins PA in 2016 if blacks turned out as they had for Obama in 2008 and 2012. But she was well within the MoE, even behind, if the level of black turnout was more like 2014 when Obama was not on the ticket. But Phili underdelivered and the rest of PA was very favorable to Trump. Michigan was another state that was questionable based on polling. Lastly, the greatest fear pollsters have is that they are not collecting complete and accurate into. First, it is more difficult to get people on the Right on the phone because they are either busy living life or they are far more reluctant to participate in polls than those on the Left. This is "the silent Tory" issue. Second, there is the fear that those contacted and willing to engage are lying to them. This is not a fear of Dems saying they will vote for the GOP candidate, it is people on the Right lying about who they are and how they will vote. As Silver of 538 has said repeatedly, any poll which shows the Democrat ahead, but by less than the MoE, should considered a toss-up due to skew.
  8. Philly, I partially agree with you, especially on head-to-head polling pitting on person versus another on a national basis. Too easy to manipulate via sampling massage and tweaking. Also meaningless too far out from an election. And, lastly, meaningless in context of Electoral College process. On the other hand, polls marking sentiment, satisfaction and prime concerns can be very instructive, more about the trends than the absolute numbers. For example, I am less concerned on whether Trump's approval rating is in the high 30, low 40s or close to 50%, it is the trend in the specific poll I care about. If XYZ cable channel has its newest poll showing Trump at 38%, up from 35% the prior month, that movement is more important that the level. Particularly so if it corresponds with LMN Times newspaper poll showing his approval moving from 42% to 45% over roughly the same period. Confirming the trend is more important than the difference between the two absolute numbers. This is why people put more credence in the RCP and 538 poll aggregates. In the case of Zogby, his party affiliation breakdown is 36% Democrat, 36% Republican and 28% Independent/unaffiliated. That even split between R and D is very different than WSJ or WaPo polls where the data is massaged to provide Dems with a multi-%point advantage in weighting. And therein might life the difference between Zogby and the other pollsters, a balance between R and D voters.
  9. I wonder if you thought the same of this week's Fox News poll that showed Biden beating Trump? Did you mock it’s small sample set? Interviews were conducted August 11-13, 2019 among a random national sample of 1,013 registered voters (RV). Landline (222) and cellphone (791) telephone numbers were randomly selected for inclusion in the survey using a probability proportionate to size method, which means phone numbers for each state are proportional to the number of voters in each state. Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ± 3 percentage points. The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) (formerly known as Anderson Robbins Research) and Shaw & Company Research (R).
  10. You do realize that most polling is done on samples of 800-1,100 people, right? You do understand that you dial up and speak to 1,000-1,100 persons in the hopes of finding 800-900 who you can identify as "likely voters", right? And you do understand that for the sake of accuracy: likely voter > registered voter > adult, right? And you understand that in public polling of this type, a statistical 3.0-3.5% margin of error is that standard of most poll, right? And, as shown below, for costs sake, boosting sample set form 1,000 to 2,000, theoretically a a doubling of time and costs, only leads the MoE dropping from 3% to 2%, right? I don’t know, maybe you know something about statistics and polling, and realize this is no less accurate than most other political polls and you are just being snarky. Or, you are just ignorant of such things and that’s the best response you could muster.
  11. https://zogbyanalytics.com/news/896-a-majority-of-voters-give-trump-thumbs-up-again-while-trudeau-lags-behind-at-43-job-approval-trump-s-support-with-his-base-has-increased-drastically-nearly-half-of-hispanics-approve-of-trump
  12. Zogby Analytics has some interesting findings in it latest poll of likely voters. He’s up with urban voters, Millennials, urban voters, Hispanics and at a record with black Americans in Zogby's polls. This is not what the rest of polls are reporting, why? Is Zogby an outlier, or early in seeing trends? A majority of voters give Trump thumbs-up again, while Trudeau lags behind at 43% job approval; Trump's support with his base has increased drastically; Nearly half of Hispanics approve of Trump A new Zogby Poll® of 897 likely voters nationwide in the U.S., conducted from 8/9/19-8/12/19, with a margin of sampling error of +/-3.3 percentage points, shows President Trump's job approval rating at 51%, its best since we've been tracking the figure. The Takeaways President Trump's job approval rating is tied for the highest we have on record. A slim majority strongly and somewhat approve of his job performance as president for the second straight poll. His numbers are being driven by record low unemployment and an inflated stock market, but a potential recession looms. Besides a good economy, Trump's good approval rating is being driven by a surge in popularity among voters living in the South and Central regions, Independents, Millennials, suburban men, urban men, and older voters. Trump's approval rating has improved with minorities-28% of African Americans and 49% of Hispanics at least somewhat approve of the president-both very good numbers, historically, for Trump. Trump's support has spiked among consumers, mainly NASCAR fans and weekly Walmart and Amazon shoppers. A solid majority of each group gives the president a positive job rating. Trump has recently seen a spike in support among large and small city voters-more than half of each group approves of the president. Trump is also polling well among urban women, but has seen his support from suburban women take a beating. It will be interesting to see if the rise in support among urban women can blunt the decreased support among women in the suburbs. Religious voters are key to Trump winning in 2020. They make-up a big part of the electorate and have a big presence in battleground states. Right now the president is polling very well with Catholics, Protestants and Evangelicals. President Trump continues to score well with younger Millennial voters aged 18-29 (46% approve/50% disapprove) and Generation Z voters aged 18-24 (44% approve/53% disapprove). Usually, Trump does best with voters over 50, but in our latest poll, he is receiving solid support from voters under 50--a majority of Generation X voters aged 30-49 approved of Trump's job as president (51% approve/49% disapprove). The President also received a good approval rating with voters aged 25-54; he received a majority job approval rating from older Millennial voters aged 25-34 (52% approve/47% disapprove) and middle aged voters aged 35-54 (52% approve/46% disapprove). Among the oldest voters surveyed-aged 65+ and 70+ , Trump's job approval rebounded (57% approve/42% disapprove and 62% approve/38% disapprove, respectively). As per usual, the president did well with men (58% approve/41% disapprove) and he continued to improve his support with all women (44% approve/53% disapprove). Race also played a factor in Trump's job approval rating. Hispanics, this time around, were much more likely to approve of his job performance (49% approve/51% disapprove), while the president also saw his numbers jump with African Americans. This was his second straight poll with over a quarter support from African Americans (28% approve/70% disapprove). If Trump wins half of Hispanics and a quarter of African Americans in 2020, Democrats will be in trouble!
  13. Yeah, all versions of shrimp, from little ones to fair sized mantis. Traditional Bahamas flies are no good I was told. @BrianBM my current avatar is actually a painting that the late Jeffrey Epstein has in his $50mm NYC condo apartment.
  14. I fished with that service right under the airports runway at least 10 years ago. Got too close to the military area and got shouted off by MPs with ARs. Yes, some of the most spooky bonefish I’ve ever seen. While the fish were interesting, the highlight of my day was four fighter jets taking off while we were less than 300 or 400 yards away. Not only impressive to see but the sound was one of the loudest I’ve ever experienced. Most definitely different than the west side of Andros where the fish are easier and the silence is deafening. .