smallstupidfish

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  1. saw what looked to be a first decent push moving upstream over the weekend there-- woop woop!
  2. lol..... at when folks who don't pay attention to what climate science says criticize it. if you don't actually take the time to understand the science, its implications and its uncertainties, why are you surprised when your diagnosis of what "they" are saying is wrong? Same for the folks here who do have some understanding of anthropogenic global warming, just because we all read news articles about the drought, doesn't mean that unending drought is really what global warming implies for california. C&P-ing an article from nature, google for more info, context etc. i'm certainly not very smart but i do pay attention i think! tldr: more flooding, more drought, all of the above. (wet years followed by dry years, or an increase in extremes also happens to make more fires, yay). More whiplash weather in store for California Swings from baking drought to extreme downpours will grow more common, scientists warn. In the coming decades, California is likely to shift between dry spells and floods more often than in recorded history. Previous studies have shown that warming resulting from human activities has raised the risk of drought in California, but climate change’s impact on the risk of extreme rainfall has been less clear. Daniel Swain and his colleagues at the University of California, Los Angeles, analysed historical flood and drought events, as well as climate simulations to predict how often California is likely to shift from drought one year to extreme rainfall the next. The researchers project that by 2085, these dry-to-wet transition events will increase by 25% in northern California and by up to 100% in southern California. Wild swings between dry and wet conditions will jeopardize the state’s efforts to store water and control flooding, the scientists say. ---abstract: Mediterranean climate regimes are particularly susceptible to rapid shifts between drought and flood—of which, California’s rapid transition from record multi-year dryness between 2012 and 2016 to extreme wetness during the 2016–2017 winter provides a dramatic example. Projected future changes in such dry-to-wet events, however, remain inadequately quantified, which we investigate here using the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble of climate model simulations. Anthropogenic forcing is found to yield large twenty-first-century increases in the frequency of wet extremes, including a more than threefold increase in sub-seasonal events comparable to California’s ‘Great Flood of 1862’. Smaller but statistically robust increases in dry extremes are also apparent. As a consequence, a 25% to 100% increase in extreme dry-to-wet precipitation events is projected, despite only modest changes in mean precipitation. Such hydrological cycle intensification would seriously challenge California’s existing water storage, conveyance and flood control infrastructure. see: Swain, D. L., B. Langenbrunner, J. D. Neelin, and A. Hall, “Increasing precipitation volatility in 21st-century-California,” Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0140-y, 2018.
  3. interesting-- did a quick lookup for any direct research on GOM cod and found this article here, zemeckis et al 2014 (hope link is ok: https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/71/6/1356/2835586) reprinting the abstract: "Rebuilding the Gulf of Maine stock of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) has been much slower than expected. An important source of scientific uncertainty contributing to the difficulties in managing rebuilding has been the lack of understanding of cod population structure. Previous research indicates that the stock functions as a metapopulation that is made up of multiple subpopulations and many finer-scale spawning components. This study investigated fine-scale, multiyear spawning site fidelity by a spring-spawning component of Atlantic cod in the western Gulf of Maine. Movements of acoustically tagged cod (n = 63) with respect to a known spawning site were tracked using passive acoustic telemetry. A large proportion (38–67%) of tagged cod exhibited spawning site fidelity between 2010 and 2012. After adjusting for fishing mortality, natural mortality, and skipped spawning, the estimated rate of spawning site fidelity ranged between 47 and 95% in 2011. Multiyear spawning site fidelity was also observed, with individuals being tracked for up to four consecutive spawning seasons. Spawning site fidelity serves as one of the multiple mechanisms that contribute to the formation and maintenance of the observed metapopulation structure. Spawning site fidelity also reduces the reproductive connectivity among spawning sites, thus delaying both recolonization of abandoned spawning sites and stock rebuilding. Future stock assessment models and fishery management plans that incorporate the metapopulation structure of cod in the Gulf of Maine are expected to be more effective at preventing continued declines in spawning diversity and promoting rebuilding." 47-95% spawning site fidelity is pretty dang high for an oceanic fish. Since cod spawn in winter, it would make sense to me that those winter fisheries would have been targeting cod on or near spawning locations. And following the research, if you wiped out those populations, they wouldn't necessarily return! Would be great if management could have protected spawning populations, as the diversity really would have helped during environmental stress like the current warm temperatures. those fall fish caught on the beaches probably were chasing food i'd guess, though. range expansion due to abundance, just like the stripes. lots going on, all at once
  4. oh definitely the biomass has moved north i certainly believe that. if you take a look at the stock assessment, they certainly do split silver hake into a northern and southern population segment. iirc theres different spawning areas for the two stocks, though there is certainly some overlap. but based on the way stories about frostfish disappear after the foreign fleets come in to the picture, its hard to believe whiting can be considered a fully recovered stock. i'd suspect the stock assessment benchmarks represent some shifting baselines because we don't have good data about what whiting populations looked like back then. i would expect the winter shore fishery probably required a huge population to force fish to come onto the beach to feed in the winter, and I don't think thats reflected in the management targets, not that those populations are possible any more, see climate change, regime change.
  5. i'd quibble with this idea just a bit-- whiting definitely experienced severe overfishing from the mid 60's to the end of the 70's-- not coincidentally this is the time period when you hear the stories about the frostfish ending. after the factory fleets from russia showed up you don't hear the stories of walking down the beach and picking up whiting anymore. i'd also suspect the estimated landings could very well be much higher than indicated in the chart below, since they didnt keep very good records back then from what i understand, especially from foreign fleets. it sounds like boat trips continued after these years, but the shore fishing never came back for whiting, i'd be suspicious that the severe overfishing initiated a regime change, with the population going from a pretty important (potentially keystoneish, at least for the winter?) predator/forage, to a much more insignificant role, and this impeded any recovery after the cessation of extreme overfishing. i see the climate signal as becoming more important in recent times, helping at first to slow down any population growth, and then, as warming really accelerates since 2012 or so, driving population decline despite no meaningful increase in landings. this is, of course, all wild speculation, but i do think the climate signal is spelled out pretty clearly here in these more recent time series of landings, you see increases in the northern stock landings, and decreases in the southern. from what i've read, it looks like whiting are more tolerant of warmer waters than other gadoids like cod and haddock, so I'd bit more skeptical of climate effects a few decades back. you never know, though, and certainly in ecosystems its pretty hard to fully disentangle all the various drivers of change. (charts from the most recent hake stock assessment i could find).
  6. not to excuse the inaccurate numbers, esp in the past, or the really bad decisions managers make with those numbers! just wanted to highlight that the work mrip people do is generally pretty good and has quite a bit of thought in it! always room for improvement
  7. oops, my mistake! haven't been around it for a bit, my apologies!
  8. also just to chime in a bit to help clear a few things about mrip. i did some work with mrip back when it was transitioned from the wasteful, crappy, private contractors to state control. in a super stripped down, catch estimates are generated by the combination of catch-per-unit-effort (cpue) and effort data. cpue is the measure of how much a person catches in a given length of time fishing, and effort is the amount of people fishing and how often they fish. CPUE is determined through direct surveys of fishermen, and measurements of the fish they catch. effort is determined by a mail survey distributed based on the state registries. this is of course broken down by sectors, private boat, shore, and charter. you may not be surprised to find that private boats catch the majority of all the fish (in a perfect world, i think it would really make sense to have different regs for boat vs shore fishermen) i have to say I was pretty impressed by the work the surveyors do on the ground. it's a lot of work gathering the data, making sure it is accurate, and dealing with folks who can occasionally be openly hostile/threatening. when the states took over the surveys, the amount of data gathered went way up, since they know their own fisheries, and can tailor it to work for their local area. the data gathered is pretty good data, all things considered. each data point itself is a terribly inaccurate measure of what the total catch is. this is basic statistics. when you get more data, the accuracy improves, and any outlier's naturally become less influential, even excluding the work the model does to clear outliers. the notorious wave 6 2016 data is likely an example of this, generally you have much less fishing effort in wave 6, and so you have less samples. less samples, less confidence in the overall estimate. since its a small number of samples, for a small amount of effort, this isn't going to affect the accuracy your larger coastal, or yearly catch estimates nearly as much. excluding this data would actually make it less accurate. if you have outliers that need to be removed, its much better to look at them in the context of the entire dataset. if you haven't seen a surveyor, even in a long time, I'm not surprised. the simple fact is that there are millions of people who fish recreationally, and you just can't survey more than a small fraction of that population within a reasonable budget. luckily, you don't need to survey all of them. you need enough to give you a representative sample, the size of which varies based on the population you're looking at, which is likely represented in the pse numbers. another reason you may not be surveyed is that owners of private marinas or party boats or any private property can refuse to allow access. so if your particular marina doesn't want surveyors there, you won't see them. luckily, plenty of places (at least where i worked) have a good relationship and allow for the collection of plenty of data. your average charter captain in a busy port probably knows the mrip folks pretty well. also if i recall correctly, new york had one of the worst recreational data programs on the coast, despite having some of the highest fishing pressures. maybe this has changed by now?
  9. **wrong about vtrs, see makomike's post below lol that most discussions of fishery inevitably end up spinning circles around mrip, its like godwins law for fishing forums
  10. they were there last week, if you were gonna do it I'd go soon, based on the pattern of the past few years. interestingly, they don't seem to be as driven by water temperatures as they have in the past, maybe they're more seasonally driven than i expected, or they're much more flexible on the lower bound than the upper?
  11. Thanks for the info DZ! will give it another shot
  12. been a lot of herring around this year, for the past week or two. kinda surprising given the poor status of the stock, esp in the gulf of maine (trawlers havent even hit their quota for the year if i recall correctly.) though there's been a lot of bait around even this late, silversides and peanut bunker. fish have been spitting up what i believe are juvenile silver hake (whiting) as well. speaking of whiting, i've been on a hunt recently to try to find one from shore, I've heard there used to be a big late fall fishery for them and i'm interested in seeing if anything remains! been fishing herring chunks on bottom rigs at night, in what seem like possible spots to me, but all i've caught is big macks. does anyone have any intel on where a whiting might be found? or how to target them? i think it'd be super cool to see if this fishery still exists in any form around here.
  13. is that what all the trawlers fishing a mile off the beaches are after? was wondering what they've been after as it doesn't seem like herring are around this year... also if you mean the nantucket squid buffer, i believe that died in committee last year, as the managers "wanted to see the effects of their latest rules" lol. does anyone target whiting recreationally? if they're around in big numbers im surprised the party boats wouldn't go after them. oh and season was probably average for me, lots of small bass. surprised to find lots of blitzing fish in mid august, but couldn't catch anything of size till october. lots of peanuts this year, and good for green bonito. real poor on the squid front, though.
  14. can confirm the tiny peanuts-- very excited to see them get bigger this fall!!!! and blues, finally,some size to them as well. hoping the population is ok, and they were just late. we'll find out i suppose. anybody seeing any chub macks?
  15. I do herring in the winter time when they're around. a fun food project if yr into that sort of thing and it's not hard-- just use a pressure canner, specs for pressure and time should come with it. stuff tastes way better than store bought stuff, great for sandwiches, pasta sauce etc.