paraphysis

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  1. “Since the founding of the United States, politicians and pundits have warned that partisanship is a danger to democracy. George Washington, in his Farewell Address, worried that political parties, or factions, could "allow cunning, ambitious and unprincipled men" to rise to power and subvert democracy. More recently, many political observers are concerned that increasing political polarization on left and right makes compromise impossible, and leads to the destruction of democratic norms and institutions. A new study, however, suggests that the main threat to our democracy may not be the hardening of political ideology, but rather the hardening of one particular political ideology. Political scientists Steven V. Miller of Clemsonand Nicholas T. Davis of Texas A&M have released a working paper titled "White Outgroup Intolerance and Declining Support for American Democracy." Their study finds a correlation between white American's intolerance, and support for authoritarian rule. In other words, when intolerant white people fear democracy may benefit marginalized people, they abandon their commitment to democracy.” I hope they are wrong but fear they hit the nail on the head.
  2. He wouldn’t have been murdered
  3. spot on!!
  4. Just finished a book - Bring the war home by Kathleen Belew. While the 2016 election is only mentioned in the epilogue, the book gives an historical account of the evolution of the KKK to the white power movement and christian identity politics that ended with the Oklahoma City bombing. She specifically focused on the role of the Vietnam war on the para militarization of this movement. She comments that in the aftermath of OKC bombing the movement didn't just disappear- it was and is still with us.
  5. 100% agree. For a variety of reasons it wasn’t available. So it’s a hypothetical proposition.
  6. ^ +1 I'm frequently in 3 of the major hospitals in NJ. In fact they have been running at 200%+ ICU capacity for the past couple weeks. Over the past few days there has been a flattening of the curve, ie the number of ICU patients has remained stable (at a very high level). This is very good and I believe an example that all of these restrictions, while draconian, have worked. Let's hope it will result in the gradual reopening of our economy, and NOT a new spike in cases. Stay safe everyone!
  7. Patriotism means to stand by the country. It does not mean to stand by the president or any other public official, save exactly to the degree in which he himself stands by the country. It is patriotic to support him insofar as he efficiently serves the country. It is unpatriotic not to oppose him to the exact extent that by inefficiency or otherwise he fails in his duty to stand by the country. In either event, it is unpatriotic not to tell the truth, whether about the president or anyone else. Teddy Roosevelt 1918
  8. All the times people said- I don't agree with what Trump SAYS but I agree with what he DOES. This crisis clearly shows, IMO, that what and how a president speaks to the nation means ALOT. As much as what he actually does. Especially during a crisis.
  9. Data thus far is largely anecdotal but It’s certainly reasonable to think that smoking (and vaping) would elevate ones risk. I’ve also read that the higher smoking rate among men in China and Italy contributed to a higher death rate. Obesity may also be a risk factor along with any impairment to ones immune system (chemo, certain arthritis meds etc). an interesting side note- my BIL who works in import/export in fashion industry says the italy/China connection is related to the leather industry. The tanning companies are in that part of China and Milan has a lot of finished leather work. Lots of travel between those areas. Not sure if that will hold but may explain the initial outbreak in those two countries.
  10. The jury is out on this presently- what I do know is that hospitals in a "hot zone" have a lot of COVID patients while those that aren't in hot zones don't seem as inundated with COVID patients. Is this an impact of social distancing? I suspect it helped but the final chapter isn't written yet. We are in the middle right now. Is it worth the financial/social costs? Again - IMO it depends how long this lasts. Time will tell. As a side note- NO patients want to go to the hospital for a non COVID issue unless ABSOLUTELY necessary.
  11. It’s a educated guess but I suspect that without it the hospitals would have been overrun. Remember one consequence (of many) would be that a 50 yo with a heart attack, or stroke, might not have been able to be treated because all the ICU’s were full of COVID patients. Kinda of what happened in Italy. There would be significant rationing of medical resources. It’s not something we really think about in a normal day to day scenario.
  12. The context of my quote needs to be empathized. It does appear true that many many patients who contract COVID do not become very symptomatic. HOWEVER- there are a lot of symptomatic patients. One hospital I know of is down to their last 5 ventilators. After that - anesthesia machines and hopefully there is no after that because that’s when the real rationing begins. They project the hospital could need 100 ICU beds (40 at baseline) before this is over. And the average length of a patient being on a ventilator seems to be closer to 10 days. It will be interesting to follow this over the next few years as the pros and cons of these decisions as well as the effectiveness of social distancing will be studied.
  13. Superficially there are a fair number of 45-60 yo people in the ICU. I suspect some but not all will have co morbidities. It seems the real difference is that while younger people do contract the disease and can become sick, the mortality rate really jumps with age and significant co-morbidites. There really is very little good epidemiological data on this and we are all kinda guessing. The best I’ve heard so far was from the diamond princess cruise. Quote from the article - “As of February 20, tests of most of the 3,711 people aboard the Diamond Princessconfirmed that 634, or 17 percent, had the virus; 328 of them did not have symptoms at the time of diagnosis. Of those with symptoms, the fatality ratio was 1.9 percent, Russell and colleagues calculate. Of all infected, that ratio was 0.91 percent. Those 70 and older were most vulnerable, with an overall fatalit y ratio of about 7.3 percent.“ from science news.org 3/12/20 They then extrapolate the data to China and estimate a fatality rate of 0.5% (flu there is 0.1%). However all of this is preliminary and is bound to change over time. Stay safe out there!
  14. JohnP - thanks but in all honesty I don’t deserve it. I’m lucky to be somewhat removed from that patient population and currently there is no elective surgery being done. But a lot of my friends are there and many of our nurses are seeing it first hand in the ICU and ED.
  15. As a physician in NJ and initially somewhat skeptical of the massive shutdown it is clear that while many (80% or so) of infected folks have little to no symptoms those that are sick are REALLY sick. 2 hospitals I work at are admitting patients into their FOURTH ICU in each hospital, the other three are full! At one of these hospitals there were 7 patients intubated during the overnight shift. The largest failure IMO is the lack of rapid, accurate and readily available testing. This MAY have allowed us to quarantine infected folks while the rest continued to work. The reality is that I assume the development of these tests would have required access to China when they weren’t allowing the CDC physicians into the country. Besides those directly infected being affected, the medical staff - ESPECIALLY nurses, techs and other staff are really taking it on the chin right now. They are caring for really sick people while trying to protect themselves and their families. This may not seem like a crisis to many but a few are really struggling. Do your best to thank a nurse or tech if you know one. I thank them as much as I can. Let’s hope this passes sooner rather than later.