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Wall st. is the correction near?

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JimG

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I dont have any articles to post.  I could find some but who cares.  I want opinions.  I have read that institutional investors are shifting toward defensive stocks.  The PE ratio on the major indexes are on average way too high.

Interest rates rising.  

 

When does the panic start?

Will it be a 10% correction, 20%?!?! Or more

 

I'd like to hear from money amateurs (like myself) and those that do this for a living.  

 

Leave the politics at the door.  It's about the only real green party.  Our money.

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I am counting on my AAA money fund managers to answer that for me so I have more relaxed fishing time.  They will be buying when everyone else is tossing shares away in panic.  As they have for 35 years.

I won't tolerate your intolerance, because I hate hate.

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By the time we figure it out, and can do something to save ourselves, it will be too late to save the farm.

Might as well ride it out all the way down.

Material abundance without character is the path of destruction.
-Thomas Jefferson
There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.
-Soren Kierkegaard

 

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8 mins ago, dena said:

By the time we figure it out, and can do something to save ourselves, it will be too late to save the farm.

Might as well ride it out all the way down.

Indeed and then dollar cost average your way back up. Good companies are good companies. 

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11 mins ago, ErikT said:

Indeed and then dollar cost average your way back up. Good companies are good companies. 

My only problem is my age, and being to old to ride it back to the top if it is a catastrophic fall, unless I work until I am 75.

Material abundance without character is the path of destruction.
-Thomas Jefferson
There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.
-Soren Kierkegaard

 

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I got out a long time ago. 

No longer working I could no longer afford to take chances. My money went into real estate and silver. 

The silver did well for a while and then went stale. Been sitting on it since. I don't want to move it, it weighs too much :D 

The real estate has served me well.

 

Bears make money, bulls make money pigs make schit..... don't be a pig 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, JimG said:

I dont have any articles to post.  I could find some but who cares.  I want opinions.  I have read that institutional investors are shifting toward defensive stocks.  The PE ratio on the major indexes are on average way too high.

Interest rates rising.  

 

When does the panic start?

Will it be a 10% correction, 20%?!?! Or more

 

I'd like to hear from money amateurs (like myself) and those that do this for a living.  

 

Leave the politics at the door.  It's about the only real green party.  Our money.

 

Go all in on Trump. Take out a home equity and buy SnP 500

wheres your faith?

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Marketwatch thinks exactly the opposite.  From today....

 

"The Dow Jones Industrial Average was on the brink of bursting out of correction territory for the first time in more than six months, underscoring some signs of renewed optimism on Wall Street."

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Certain indeces already dropped more than 10%. Real estate going crazy, oil creeping up, interest rates creeping up, turkey, Iran, China, Russia sanctions. Trump,going to be impeached or thrown in jail by Mueller.   Maxine Waters running for President. 

 

Something will I’ll be the catalyst. Time for a bigger correction. It’s due. No one knows when though. Be prepared 

 

Fortunes are made in bear markets, not bull markets. 

*

 

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Gami is correct in that you cannot time the market. You have to be right twice. When to get out, and when to get back in. Proper risk allocation for your age is key. 

 

That said, I still think a correction is near. Too many world catalysts in the works. 

*

 

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We have had a series of rolling corrections, both through US equity sectors as well as globally. So while the markets have not had a big and coordinated correction, many stocks have. 

 

Most important quote related to The markets:

 

Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.” - Sir John Templeton

 

We are somewhere between skepticism and optimism IMO. 

 

European economic growth is slowing. China may be slowing.

 

Meanwhile, nearly 80% of SP500 companies that have reported beat their earnings estimates and just over 70% have beat their sales estimates.  Blended average earnings growth has been 25%.

 

 

“No nation in history has survived once its borders were destroyed, once its citizenship was rendered no different from mere residence, and once its neighbors with impunity undermined its sovereignty.”

- Victor Davis Hanson 

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