BrianBM

Latest storm

171 posts in this topic

29 mins ago, bradW said:

still in the sloppy mess portion, but i'll take it. my poor wife has enough to do than worry about shoveling a foot of snow while i am laying on the couch... :rolleyes: 

 

and rst3 i take back my :kiss:

instead you get :mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::mad: 

Shoot the messenger 

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And again.....another few days of aching joints as I watch my barometer numbers drop.    :dismay:  

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35 mins ago, bradW said:

still in the sloppy mess portion, but i'll take it. my poor wife has enough to do than worry about shoveling a foot of snow while i am laying on the couch... :rolleyes: 

 

and rst3 i take back my :kiss:

instead you get :mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::mad: 

Just the messenger my good man!

5aa5a69b03fea_images(7).jpeg.c17b6a98441b71ece13598a6364bd9b8.jpeg

 

(any chance for a 'high5' if the summer turns out warm?)

 

As for cape accumulation... unfortunately for your poor wife- this does look like 4 Advil type snow on Cape, and just north of the bridge into SE MA. Might only be 3-6 directly on Cape--depending on location--but it'll be a heavy mashed potatoes snow at best. Concrete at worst.

 

So maybe.. throw 20 bucks at a local enterprising 8yr old? and have him blow some discs shoveling instead.

 

Crappiest news I guess is that some folks have the cape getting heavily pasted by 6-12 of, well-- heavy paste. If so, could be another power outage fiasco down there. Esp with the wind. 

 

(.. only the messenger!!)

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One word: Crap. Bugger. Bollocks. Or select your favorite expletive. :dismay:

 

My tennis elbow aint gonna like this one bit, it thought we were done. Sigh...

 

-bd

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Posted (edited)

C'mon we're not even half way through the third crappiest month of the calendar year here in New England!   Life is tough up in these latitudes.   There's always the south with the Confederate Flag and all the crap it brings.   We live through the shat and we enjoy our warm months,  so buck up!  Oil up the liver and enjoy your snow blower or the shove God gave you.   Get that plow a plowing and keep your eyes on the prize........mid April thru December...if your lucky!   Don't eff it up!!!!!!

Edited by flylikabird

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1 hour ago, rst3 said:

Just the messenger my good man!

5aa5a69b03fea_images(7).jpeg.c17b6a98441b71ece13598a6364bd9b8.jpeg

 

(any chance for a 'high5' if the summer turns out warm?)

 

As for cape accumulation... unfortunately for your poor wife- this does look like 4 Advil type snow on Cape, and just north of the bridge into SE MA. Might only be 3-6 directly on Cape--depending on location--but it'll be a heavy mashed potatoes snow at best. Concrete at worst.

 

So maybe.. throw 20 bucks at a local enterprising 8yr old? and have him blow some discs shoveling instead.

 

Crappiest news I guess is that some folks have the cape getting heavily pasted by 6-12 of, well-- heavy paste. If so, could be another power outage fiasco down there. Esp with the wind. 

 

(.. only the messenger!!)

understood. im only busting balls. We have the snowblower, but if it's slop, snowblowers are useless. 20 bucks to the kid sounds like a plan. good way to keep them out of my hair for a bit..

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Late night update:

Imo, still a coinflip forecast til noon tomorrow: re: swipe vs dump. Really cant say til then. One thing popping at this late hr in the wonderful world of models is a slight shift in tilt of trough/upper level vorticity. Less negative, more neutral.

20180311_224641.png.6b75f474ea77f86084cb9d0dab34fd68.png

 

Result (if verified in reality) would be action a little further east.

20180311_224703.png.7bda1164a5096cc448c216c70d13f76e.png

 

Bear in mind we're talking 20-50miles here. But often, that's the difference between crap and, oh crap.

 

When weathernerds stop arguing and throwing pencils at each other around noon tomorrow, I'll post and let the fishing community know how much advil to buy

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Alright ive seen enough. Going all in.

 

Latest EURO(00z) for 8am tomorrow.

On these maps (up at about 18000ft), the colored streamers just show potential vorticity, which is an imp fluid dynamics value that really helps show what the hell is actually going on with the atmosphere. 

First off, the 00z depicts a sharper and more negatively tilted trof, vs the model run from 12hrs earlier. Can see the sharpness by the red nose thing sticking out from New Jersey.

20180312_041251.png.0c7923fd19b3d2de417caccd405a5eaa.png

20180312_041700.png.aadf8a46618c1d46458f8d681ef0e451.png

Thats key. More negative tilt helps bring the action associated with the ocean storm back toward the coast. 

 

Also eye opening, the southern energy associated w/the coastal storm is further west..and bending back toward NE a good bit more. And the stream of colored PV values now pointed at the south shore/Cape Cod? Pretty good clue that it's going to be puking snow there tomorrow morning.

20180312_053257.png.3c159d5348315157a2a0082dbf31536b.png

 

Bottom line: it gon snow.

20180312_060900.png.db1b71da4fa65858774e2ac5c71116f8.png

I still think these NWS values will end up being a little overdone, vs what we actually get. A solid, hefty foot+..esp inside 495.

 

And if we get a nice band that sets up puking on the south shore? I could buy 16 there.

 

Snow consistency will be somewhat lighter than the tree-snapping stuff from last storm. Little more cold to work with this go around. Could (per usual) see lower totals and more mashed potatoes snow well east of canal--esp southeast portion of cape

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28 mins ago, rst3 said:

Alright ive seen enough. Going all in.

 

Latest EURO(00z) for 8am tomorrow.

On these maps (up at about 18000ft), the colored streamers just show potential vorticity, which is an imp fluid dynamics value that really helps show what the hell is actually going on with the atmosphere. 

First off, the 00z depicts a sharper and more negatively tilted trof, vs the model run from 12hrs earlier. Can see the sharpness by the red nose thing sticking out from New Jersey.

20180312_041251.png.0c7923fd19b3d2de417caccd405a5eaa.png

20180312_041700.png.aadf8a46618c1d46458f8d681ef0e451.png

Thats key. More negative tilt helps bring the action associated with the ocean storm back toward the coast. 

 

Also eye opening, the southern energy associated w/the coastal storm is further west..and bending back toward NE a good bit more. And the stream of colored PV values now pointed at the south shore/Cape Cod? Pretty good clue that it's going to be puking snow there tomorrow morning.

20180312_053257.png.3c159d5348315157a2a0082dbf31536b.png

 

Bottom line: it gon snow.

20180312_060900.png.db1b71da4fa65858774e2ac5c71116f8.png

I still think these NWS values will end up being a little overdone, vs what we actually get. A solid, hefty foot+..esp inside 495.

 

And if we get a nice band that sets up puking on the south shore? I could buy 16 there.

 

Snow consistency will be somewhat lighter than the tree-snapping stuff from last storm. Little more cold to work with this go around. Could (per usual) see lower totals and more mashed potatoes snow well east of canal--esp southeast portion of cape

...so you’re saying I should not have uncovered and dewinterized the boat yesterday?

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4 mins ago, BillyBallGame said:

...so you’re saying I should not have uncovered and dewinterized the boat yesterday?

That's a fair read.

 

Sucks, but looks like you were a week early.

Could always stand out there during the onslaught, with a hair dryer pointed at the sky. Or 50.

20180312_070634.png.be65da6bc0e6b67a3b9a2d8a78aae851.png

 

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Just ran across this.

 

I dont draw snow maps. (..too much super fun, 'important stuff' going on in my life to bother w/that..)

 

But if I did I'd draw one like this. Pretty much exactly how I feel it's going to go. Biggest snows of year for south shore/Cape, where the focus of the storm will be.

20180312_075208.png.ea7f5bf923eddae3fe515cce719ec5de.png

It is true that there's a lot of precipitable water coming in with this storm.. and snow totals could in theory overperform these numbers by 6inches. But I'm sticking with my solid foot inside 495 and mid teens south shore & poss cape.

 

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Hmmm.  Well, by tonight, we should have a nice firm forecast.  As firm as the state of the art permits, anyway. 

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7 mins ago, BrianBM said:

Hmmm.  Well, by t̶o̶n̶i̶g̶h̶t̶ Wednesday, we should have a nice firm forecast.  As firm as the state of the art permits, anyway. 

Ftfy

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12-18" of heart attack snow. :eek: 

I live 350 miles south of the Arctic Circle, and we haven't had 12-18 total all ****ing winter. :laugh: 

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16 hours ago, rst3 said:

... To be honest though, nobody had any more clue than this last Thursday. Amazes me that we can see "potential" storms 10 days out.. 

It amazes me too. Beyond the science and data requirements, such forecasting was impossible until computers came along and numerical models were developed.

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