231 posts in this topic

Ice forecast- Feb update

 

Figured I'd chime in and update the ice weather outlook, as things have changed a bit since last week. The original forecast had cool conditions dominating...at least through the 1st two weeks of Feb. Welp, week 1 verified ..but looks like the cold air over Canada never ended up budging south and east after all, so New England is now up for a week or even two of mild stuff. Mostly 40s instead of 30s. And downpours Sunday.

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Bottom line is: if your favorite eastern mass hardwater still had good safe ice this week, then perhaps Saturday would be a good day to fish locally and enjoy it. Save those long road trips North and West for subsequent weekends. *you're likely going to need them*

 

Normally computer models are pretty good with forecast temps 1-2weeks out.

 

But not right now.

 

Ton of uncertainty and inconsistency in the model runs. Just take a gander at these two forecasts(below) for Friday afternoon of next week. The American GFS model computed them in subsequent runs yesterday--only 6hrs apart. 30° to 60°. Thing has absolutely no clue. Garbage. Grade F.

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20180209_005705.png.f96ab229b1dc9d0c068dca23c6e5574f.png

 

So I'll pass on speculation beyond next week. Just get out and enjoy what you can while you can, and maybe ice some fish Saturday. 

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I haven't gotten to go chase big fish this season, but, I have been able to spend a bunch of time on the ice with my kids.  The little one always put up a huge fight saying she doesn't want to go, then she catches a bunch of fish and apologizes to me on the way home.  Its getting to be "our routine". 

 

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sam

 

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On 2/9/2018 at 11:17 AM, bassturds said:

 i had luck fishing shallow for brookies and bows.  small shiners and jigs.  

 

Thanks for the advice!   once I talked the guys into moving into more shallow water we managed two nice browns on shiners and got many more flags.

 

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I hope I can get out at least one more time without having to travel too far but mother nature doesn't look like she wants to cooperate this week. 

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8 hours ago, z-man said:

I hope I can get out at least one more time without having to travel too far but mother nature doesn't look like she wants to cooperate this week. 

Unfortunately, all signs are now screaming 2 straight wks of warmth.

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And with no snowcover to shield the late winter ice from being blasted daily by the fast-rising sun, the internal strength will start to drop some as well, as the large crystals start to melt and reform as weaker, smaller ones. I mean, it's not going to candle up and be rotten in 5 days or anything...but we're certainly past the pristine strength of that cold, black, early January ice.

 

Good news is: there's plenty of big ice up north. Bad news is: it's a drive.

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