spinr0k

Hurricane Jose

23 posts in this topic

Figured a new topic on this storm was warranted with the new models showing Jose might skirt up our coast,  hopefully it stays offshore and stays small.

 

Good for waves and some say fishing as well, bad for the already fragile Assateague Island.

 

20170902_161853.thumb.jpg.9fa4a1184554dc9946287bd65cdd23f9.jpg

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Posted (edited)

Yea, one model shows it skirting the coast and going by AI. just in time for the tourny.

 

One more thing...... new moon, Wed. Sept. 20th

Edited by Catskill John

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...FWIW, I have found that one of the best tracking/predicting websites for these things is called "Tropical Tidbits".

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2 hours ago, fm/nj said:

...FWIW, I have found that one of the best tracking/predicting websites for these things is called "Tropical Tidbits".

I think anyone who believes in model tracks more than 48 hrs out is just looking to stress him/herself out.

Matthew and Irma are the most recent proofs of that.

Sandy was the exception.

We are long way from determining whether Jose is a coastal event of a "fish storm".

Let's  hope for  the best and that the fall run is not impacted.

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I was just getting ready to post on here, as I'll be down this weekend for some beach and fishing.  Any good fishing going on in the VA beach area these days?  We're also hoping this storm doesn't make a visit so we can actually enjoy the week.  I'm from NJ, haven't ever fished in VA and not very familiar with the area unfortunately.

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1 hour ago, Blu4dayz said:

I was just getting ready to post on here, as I'll be down this weekend for some beach and fishing.  Any good fishing going on in the VA beach area these days?  We're also hoping this storm doesn't make a visit so we can actually enjoy the week.  I'm from NJ, haven't ever fished in VA and not very familiar with the area unfortunately.

I'm in the OBX, honkin' about 40 today out of the NE, remainder of week doesn't look good for fishing or beaching.

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Posted (edited)

16 hours ago, spinr0k said:

20170902_161853.thumb.jpg.9fa4a1184554dc9946287bd65cdd23f9.jpg

Not to derail your thread, but can someone explain to me why they can't (or don't) move the stakes back as the island migrates west?

In the picture above there is plenty of room to move the stakes west to widen the usable beach area without encroaching on the dunes or vegetation. I realize in some areas that may not be possible

Edited by castnet

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1 hour ago, castnet said:

can someone explain to me why they can't (or don't) move the stakes back

If you ask me it is so they can have an excuse to shut down the OSV.  This is Federal we are dealing with, so getting the stakes moved would be almost an act of congress.  I do remember this being addressed in the GMP, the one that was selected had that the stakes would not be moved and OSV would be allowed as long as possible.

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Btw, this is the NPS response on the GMP to using the back trails:

Concern Statement. Some commenters asked that the Back Road be reopened to provide an alternative route
around sensitive resource areas within the OSV zone that are subject to seasonal closures.

 

NPS Response. The “Back Trail” that once ran parallel to the ocean beach in the MD OSV zone was closed to
public use in 1999 due to changes in island geomorphology and habitat dynamics, as well as reassessment of the
laws, regulations and policies influencing off-road vehicle use at Assateague Island. The NPS determined that
closure of this alternative travel route along an overwash-dominated barrier island system was necessary to
ensure fiscal sustainability, to comply with policy directives regarding the protection of wilderness and threatened
and endangered species, and to prevent impairment of wetlands and other natural resources and processes
fundamental to ecosystem health. Now, the “Back Trail” is no longer discernible in many locations, experiences
overwash, and is used by piping plover as foraging and nesting habit. Therefore, even if portions of the “Back Trail”

were to be reopened, they would be subject to seasonal closures similar to those occurring on the existing
OSV route.

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Long read if interested in OSV and the GMP, I am glad to see they updated that they would review the position of the markers, but it looks like no public input will be taken.

 

Topic C1002: Visitor Experience, Oversand Vehicle Use, Carsonite Markers
Concern Statement. Many commenters requested that specific language be added to the GMP ensuring that the
carsonite markers delineating the oversand vehicle zone be repositioned annually to allow for the maximum beach
driving area as the island rolls over on itself in the future.

 

Representative Quote: Assateague Mobile Sportfishing Association
First off the word "consider" is found 206 times within the GMP and one is where the white marker is to
be relocated each year. The GMP worded the NPS will consider repositioning the marker each year. Please
include in your comments that the carsonite markers in the OSV Zone are to be moved each year to allow
maximum beach driving area in the future. If this doesn't happen as the island rolls over itself eventually
the ocean will touch the carsonite markers and there will be no room for vehicles to drive east of the
carsonite markers.

 

Representative Quote: unaffiliated individual
The GMP states the NPS will "consider" repositioning the (carsonite) markers each year. I believe that this
is a must as the island is "moved" by mother nature every year and the marks should move as well to
maintain our access in a safe manner.

 

Representative Quote: unaffiliated individual
The GMP states "the NPS will consider repositioning the marker each year". I feel the carsonite markers in
the OSV Zone are to be moved each year to allow maximum beach driving area in the future. If this
doesn't happen, as the island rolls over itself, eventually the ocean will touch the carsonite markers and
there will be no room for vehicles to drive east of the carsonite markers. The right and pleasure to drive
upon the beach should not be infringed or slowly taken away.

NPS Response. NPS reviews the location of the carsonite markers annually and would continue to review them
annually under all alternatives presented in the draft GMP/EIS. The primary travel corridor in the public OSV route
is the seaward portion of the ocean beach. The western limit of the route is located at or near the average winter
high tide line. This definable feature provides a point of demarcation that limits vehicular travel to that portion of
the ocean beach receiving significant natural disturbance from tidal action on an annual basis. It intentionally
segregates vehicles from sensitive biological communities that occur on the upper beach face and adjacent dune
fields. Route markers delineate the boundaries of the public OSV route and are placed at or near the average
winter high tide line. Generally, the NPS adjusts this boundary on an annual basis in late winter and following any
significant coastal storm event.
The draft GMP/EIS (pages xv and 2-28) has been edited via errata (see section 3.1 below) to state that NPS would
continue to review the location of the carsonite markers annually under all alternatives.

 

Topic C1003: Visitor Experience, Oversand Vehicle Use, Continued Use in Alternative 3
Concern Statement. Many commenters expressed concern regarding the statement found on page 2-50 of the
draft GMP/EIS stating, "Opportunities for driving on the beach (and associated recreation activities) in Maryland
would continue within the seashore's existing OSV use area until conditions change." Commenters were
concerned that future managers might misinterpret the statement. They desired clarification as to what
"conditions" would have to be present for OSV use to be restricted or prohibited. Many suggested changing "until
conditions change" to "until irreversible natural causes prohibit the safe use of the OSV zone on the island."
Representative Quote: Assateague Mobile Sportfishing Association
Fourthly the wording OSV will continue "until conditions change" need to be reworded to say "until
irreversible natural causes prohibits the safe use of the OSV Zone" on the island.
Representative Quote: unaffiliated individual
"OSV will continue until conditions change" needs to be reworded/rewritten to say "OSV will continue
until irreversible natural causes prohibits safe use of OSV zone on island".
Representative Quote: unaffiliated individual
OSV Use. Item 3 leads me to wording that is vague with regard to OSV usage. I am speaking of the phrase
"OSV use will continue until conditions change." I really think a more definite wording about what
"conditions" would have to be present for OSV use to be restricted or prohibited would enhance the Plan.
The wording needs to clearly state that conditions that would prohibit OSV use would be such that cause
danger to the public or their safety. Such conditions also need to be defined as to duration. OSV use
should not be curtailed unless the conditions for such restriction are permanent and caused by natural
conditions on the Seashore.
NPS Response. The draft GMP/EIS section 2.6.2 (page 2-50) addresses oversand vehicle use in the active beach
subzone in alternative 3 (preferred alternative).
The GMP (pages xii, xxii, and 2-50) has been edited via errata (see section 3.1 below) to replace the first sentence
under the subheading “Oversand Vehicle Use Area” with the following sentence: “Opportunities for driving on the
beach (and associated recreation activities) in Maryland would continue within the seashore’s existing OSV use
area. However, if a persistent breach occurs and the breach management plan recommends the breach remain
open, or land is lost due to beach erosion, access to the OSV use area could be reduced or lost.”

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um, my opinion of the nps gobblede**** is well known, but here it is again :-)  

 

imo that's all bureaucratic bs.  

 

the back road is nothing more than a trail through the sand.  

 

the island is migrating west -  the nps mandate should to be to provide a reasonable access corridor -  and the stakes need to be moved to keep up.

 

fewer and fewer people will be able to actively use the "national" seashore due to the ever increasing laws preventing access.

 

fewer people to complain when they close down all access, which is what I think their mandate is.  

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Posted (edited)

And Equinox tides....triple Yikes  but far too early to predict.  Recent GHS shows it taking a hard right to the east.

Edited by Critter Gitter

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