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New stimulus?


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#1 Gamakatsu

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Posted June 05 2012 - 7:30 AM

The economy has definitely hit a soft patch here. I wonder how much of it has to do with Europe, how much has to do with lack of confidence domestically and how much has to do with the speculator tax consumers and businesses were paying on petroleum based products, transportation of products, etc. Now that the speculator tax is being pushed out by the apparent global slowdown, consumers and businesses are getting a tax cut. Then we have the lowest mortgage rates in history for those who can refi, which will free up some household money.

How stimulative will that extra money be to the economy? I'm guessing we get a small bounce back unless Europe comes totally unglued.



#2 fishweewee

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Posted June 05 2012 - 7:40 AM

it's not a soft patch. let's call it what it is - a recession.



#3 Gamakatsu

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Posted June 05 2012 - 8:15 AM

it's not a soft patch. let's call it what it is - a recession.


Time will tell if you're correct WeeWee, but I take what you say seriously. If it is indeed a recession, you're probably correct that it will be minor barring a European meltdown, partially for the reasons I mentioned.

My fear is the end of the bond bubble, be it this year or in five. Especially if it comes about due to a breakdown of confidence in the dollar as opposed to the Fed unwinding it slowly.



#4 curl

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Posted June 05 2012 - 8:35 AM

RE DEPRESSION ?



#5 NS Mike D

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Posted June 05 2012 - 8:56 AM

stagnation

no growth while prices continue to climb as the dollar falls.




the alternative as curl puts it is depression.



#6 curl

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Posted June 05 2012 - 9:06 AM

the spin is stagflation , WHILE 1 percent handles on a 10 yr treasury screams D .



#7 curl

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Posted June 05 2012 - 9:07 AM

MY WAVE BOYS , elliot that is, think we completed a 5 wave down and look for a rally to sep.



#8 JimW

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Posted June 05 2012 - 9:36 AM

stagnation
no growth while prices continue to climb as the dollar falls.
the alternative as curl puts it is depression.


Commodity prices have been falling for a couple months. Brent is under $100. What prices are climbing?



#9 NS Mike D

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Posted June 05 2012 - 11:34 AM

Commodity prices have been falling for a couple months. Brent is under $100. What prices are climbing?


I wasn't referring to short term movements but rather overall trends, post 2007 bubble burst.


This is not a short term down term economy. The debt and lack of demand will continue for years.

Stimulus packages are short term band aids to keep the patient from flat lining.


They is nothing on the horizon to support a sustainable strong dollar and thus a drop in dollar priced commodities.


There is also nothing on the horizon to support sustainable growth of the economy.


The sustained spike in commodities and fall of the dollar have played out a lot of this long term view. IMO, any commodity price drops reflect short term adjustments from already high prices that have this long term inflationary view built in.



#10 Gamakatsu

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Posted June 05 2012 - 11:49 AM

There is also nothing on the horizon to support sustainable growth of the economy. .


The Bakken shale oil and nat gas have great potential to be stimulative both directly from their extraction and sale. And indirectly by reducing the cost of manufacturing domestically .



#11 RCrowley

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Posted June 05 2012 - 11:50 AM

The economy has definitely hit a soft patch here. I wonder how much of it has to do with Europe, how much has to do with lack of confidence domestically and how much has to do with the speculator tax consumers and businesses were paying on petroleum based products, transportation of products, etc. Now that the speculator tax is being pushed out by the apparent global slowdown, consumers and businesses are getting a tax cut. Then we have the lowest mortgage rates in history for those who can refi, which will free up some household money.
How stimulative will that extra money be to the economy? I'm guessing we get a small bounce back unless Europe comes totally unglued.


No mention about all the money the federal government is about to save when the unempoyed hit the 99 week mark and stop recieving unemployment insurance.........I kid you not the USA today actually reported this as positive news for the health of the country



#12 Gamakatsu

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Posted June 05 2012 - 12:03 PM

The Bakken shale oil and nat gas have great potential to be stimulative both directly from their extraction and sale. And indirectly by reducing the cost of manufacturing domestically .


Lower cost energy is coming, but it won't be without a fight.


No mention about all the money the federal government is about to save when the unempoyed hit the 99 week mark and stop recieving unemployment insurance.........I kid you not the USA today actually reported this as positive news for the health of the country


Throw in the fact that the only sector that is consistently shedding jobs month after month is the government sector and the future looks quite bright (using USA Today logic).



#13 nipsip

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Posted June 05 2012 - 12:35 PM

Just how stupid are people who believe in the Ryan budget. Anyone taken a look in the reduction in government spending? Thought not. If the economy was a car engine, the Republicans want to drain the oil completely out to fix it.

Posted Image



#14 fishweewee

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Posted June 05 2012 - 12:43 PM

Just how stupid are people who believe in the Ryan budget. Anyone taken a look in the reduction in government spending? Thought not. If the economy was a car engine, the Republicans want to drain the oil completely out to fix it.

Posted Image


So, did the Republicans have a monopoly on sequestration?



#15 JimW

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Posted June 05 2012 - 12:44 PM

I wasn't referring to short term movements but rather overall trends, post 2007 bubble burst.
This is not a short term down term economy. The debt and lack of demand will continue for years.
Stimulus packages are short term band aids to keep the patient from flat lining.
They is nothing on the horizon to support a sustainable strong dollar and thus a drop in dollar priced commodities.
There is also nothing on the horizon to support sustainable growth of the economy.
The sustained spike in commodities and fall of the dollar have played out a lot of this long term view. IMO, any commodity price drops reflect short term adjustments from already high prices that have this long term inflationary view built in.


Might have been an inflationary view baked in but hard to see anything inflationary in the near horizon.