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About Belmo


  • Interests (Hobbies, favorite activities, etc.):
    Fishing, drinking, gambling.
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  1. If ya got septic, a front-loadinf washer is a mist have. They use a miniscule amount of water, especially compared to top-loading models.
  2. Not really to the first question. An emphatic no to the second. I do not think it is unfair for horses who lost the Derby to skip the Preakness and run in the Belmont. To win the Triple Crown, a horse must pass The Test, and beating fresh legs in the Belmont is part of The Test. It is also less of an issue because there are 3 weeks between the Preakness and the Belmont, as opposed to 2 between the Derby and Preakness. Three weeks is enough time for a horse to recover from a hard effort, like Justify's race yesterday. If he does run out of gas in the Belmont, I think it will be a cumulative thing, that he's fatigued from all the races -- the Belmont will be his sixth race in a bit over three months -- rather than from any one race, like the Preakness.
  3. The horse he was next to quit, and he was in the clear, until a different horse came up to him. The waiting bit was the period after he vanquished Good Magic, but before Bravazos engaged him.
  4. Lousy odds. The trifecta paid $148 for a buck, which seems great, BUT: A) Baseballing the tri with Justify on top (7-all-all) would have cost $42 (7x6). This means that the return odds on the tri were only 2.4-1 (bet $42 to win $106) 2) This was pretty much a best-case scenario for the tri, as both Bravazos and Tenfold were lonshots. If a horse at lower odds hits the board, the tri could very easily have paid less than $42 -- which means you'd "hit" the bet -- and lose money. That sucks balls. And Good Magic finished 4th, remember. When I first started playing the Pick 4, a wise old bird gave me a very good tip: take the combinations you're playing, he said, and, based on the odds, figure out the combination you have that will pay the most, and the combination that will pay the least. This will put the bet in context, financially: if you're shoving $100 into the Pick 4, and you have a chance to win, say, $2,500, then that's good. If you're betting a hundred clams for a maximum potential return of $500, you probably need to reconsider. (This is also useful when singling a horse in the Pick 4: if you're playing $120 worth of tickets, and 80% of them single a horse, then you're basically betting $96 that the horse is going to win. If you are not that confident in the horse's chances, then you need to rework and/or reconsider the bet. But, as usual, I digress). Ya gotta have this kind of odds and payout info in the back of your mind pretty much all the time. Keying these kinds of huge favorites in intrarace exotics can sometimes be a good play. But it is rarely a good play in a field as small as the Preakness yesterday.
  5. Horses are pack animals, and a lot of them won't fully extend themselves unless there's another horse next to them. You see that at the track with some regularity, where a horse will let up a bit when he gets in front, and then dig in again when another horse comes up next to him.
  6. I think he will win. The race yesterday was the kind of race that the average fan doesn't understand: what Justify had to yesterday -- rum a high quality horse (Good Magic is really good) into the ground, and then have enough gas in the tank to hold off the late runners -- was brutally difficult, and the fact that he won at all, by any margin, is a testament to his greatness. And the Belmont has historically been much, much kinder to speed horses than either the Derby or the Preakness. It's counterintuitive, because one would think that the longer distance would mean more time for the come-from-behinders to catch up, but it rarely works that way. I always think of Bold Forbes, who was essentially a sprinter, but who won the Belmont because of his superior speed. Justify may not win the Belmont. But if he does, it won't be because of the distance. And I think it is overwhelmingly more likely that he wins.
  7. I won thirty clams on Switzerland. I'm gonna savor it.
  8. Didn't bet, and won't bet the Preakness. I will sit back and enjoy. Justify will romp.
  9. It's exciting! I got a steamer at Lone Star tonight!
  10. The Preakness is going to be a Xerox of the Sir Barton.
  11. Axman is a cinch in the Sir Barton. He's 3/5. Bet him with Frank's money.
  12. Chalkfest at Pimlico today. Have a beverage and enjoy watching Nustify win. He's gonna win the Triple Crown. Savor it.
  13. It's a race to watch, not bet. Justify is going to win by an easy half-dozen, but he's gonna ne 2/5. Enjoy the spectacle, and get loaded, but don't bet. And the rain has pretty nuch rooned the undercard. It sucks. I am a bigger degenerate than anyone, but even I can't bet much in the kind of slopfest they will have at Old Hilltop today.
  14. I'm going fishing as soon as the race is over!
  15. I will -- more than once!